A box contains fair coins and unfair coins. When one of the unfair coins is flipped, the probability that it lands heads is 3 2 . A coin is randomly drawn from the box and flipped twice. One of these flips lands heads, and the other one lands tails. The probability that the coin was fair is exactly 2 1 . Find the minimum number of coins in the box.
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There doesn't seem to be enough information in the problem to determine the number of coins.
If the probability that the coin was fair is exactly 1/2, doesn't that mean there's an even number of coins in the box, half fair, and half unfair.
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If the probability that the coin was fair is exactly 1/2 ....
Refer to the question, the coin means a coin is randomly drawn from the box and flipped twice with 1 H and 1 T.
It doesn't mean that you have half chance to get a fair coin.
Say there are "m" fair coins and "n" biased coins. Two events could have happened:
drawing a fair coin and then flipping it twice to get heads and tails
drawing a biased coin and then flipping it twice to get heads and tails
Both the two events have equal probability of 2 1 : a fair coin of 2 1 and a biased coin 1- 2 1 = 2 1 .
The probability of the event of drawing a fair coin and flipping heads and tails is n + m m × 2 1 × 2 1 .
The probability of the event of drawing a biased coin and flipping heads and tails is n + m n × 3 2 × 3 1 .
Since both the event probabilities are equal:
4 1 × n + m m = 9 2 × n + m n
so
4 1 × m = 9 2 × n
or
m n = 8 9
and the total number of coins is n + m, or 8 + 9 = 1 7
We are given that there is some number of fair coins and some number of unfair coins in a box and that randomly drawing a coin and flipping it twice yields a T and a H. In addition, the probability that we selected a fair coin is 2 1 . This problem is a perfect application of Bayes's Theorem.
We know that P ( fair ∣ heads and tails ) = 2 1 and, by application of Bayes's Theorem, P ( fair ∣ heads and tails ) = P ( heads and tails ) P ( fair and heads and tails ) . P ( fair and heads and tails ) = 2 p ( 2 1 ) 2 where p is the probability of selecting a fair coin and P ( heads and tails ) = 2 p ( 2 1 ) 2 + 2 ( 1 − p ) ( 3 2 ) ( 3 1 ) . Thus, 2 1 = 2 p ( 2 1 ) 2 + 2 ( 1 − p ) ( 3 2 ) ( 3 1 ) 2 p ( 2 1 ) 2 4 1 p + 9 2 ( 1 − p ) = 2 1 p 9 2 = 3 6 1 7 p p = 1 7 8
The value of p we have found is the reduced ratio of fair coins to the total number of coins. The total number of coins could be any multiple of 17. But since the question asks what the minimum number of coins in the box is, we can simply conclude that the minimum is 1 7
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P r ( i s fair coin | 1 H and 1 T ) P r (get fair coin and flip 1 H and flip 1 T) P r (get a coin at random and flip 1 H and flip 1 T) ⟹ N F ⟹ 2 1 ⋅ N F ⟹ 9 F = P r (get a coin at random and flip 1 H and flip 1 T) P r (get fair coin and flip 1 H and flip 1 T) = 2 1 = N F ⋅ 4 2 = 2 1 ⋅ N F = N F ⋅ 4 2 + N U ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 2 3 1 = 2 1 ⋅ N F + 9 4 ⋅ N U = 2 1 ⋅ N F + N U ⋅ 9 4 = 9 4 ⋅ N U = 8 U
∴ min. N = 1 7 when F=8, U=9