I am waiting for you to Toss Toss

You and Jessica take turns to toss a fair coin, with you going first. Whoever is the first to get 3 heads in total is the winner.

What is the probability of you winning? Give your answer to three significant figures.


The answer is 0.568.

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2 solutions

Potsawee Manakul
Aug 18, 2015

I realise that there should be another method which is simpler than mine; look forward to seeing another one.

Potsawee Manakul - 5 years, 10 months ago
Joe Mansley
Aug 20, 2019

It only makes a difference who goes 1st is if Jess and I toss our 3rd head after the same number of turns. The probability of rolling one's 3rd head after k turns is ( k 1 2 ) 2 k \binom{k-1}{2} 2^{-k} . Therefore the probability us rolling our 3rd head after the name number of turns is ( ( k 1 2 ) 2 k ) 2 = 1 4 ( ( k 2 ) 2 k ) 2 \sum (\binom{k-1}{2} 2^{-k})^{2} = \frac{1}{4}\sum (\binom{k}{2} 2^{-k})^{2}

I'm not sure of the best way to evaluate this sum. What I did was consider the function 1 1 x = x k \frac{1}{1-x}=\sum x^{k} , the differentiate twice and multiply by x 2 x^{2} , then differentiate twice and multiply by x 2 x^{2} . You end up with the probability being 345 3 7 = 0.112 \frac{345}{3^7} = 0.112 .

Now the probability of me winning is the probability of my going 1st being the deciding factor + 1/2 * the probability of my going first not being the deciding factor. 0.112 + 1 0.112 2 = 0.568 0.112+\frac{1-0.112}{2} = 0.568

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