You and Jessica take turns to toss a fair coin, with you going first. Whoever is the first to get 3 heads in total is the winner.
What is the probability of you winning? Give your answer to three significant figures.
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I realise that there should be another method which is simpler than mine; look forward to seeing another one.
It only makes a difference who goes 1st is if Jess and I toss our 3rd head after the same number of turns. The probability of rolling one's 3rd head after k turns is ( 2 k − 1 ) 2 − k . Therefore the probability us rolling our 3rd head after the name number of turns is ∑ ( ( 2 k − 1 ) 2 − k ) 2 = 4 1 ∑ ( ( 2 k ) 2 − k ) 2
I'm not sure of the best way to evaluate this sum. What I did was consider the function 1 − x 1 = ∑ x k , the differentiate twice and multiply by x 2 , then differentiate twice and multiply by x 2 . You end up with the probability being 3 7 3 4 5 = 0 . 1 1 2 .
Now the probability of me winning is the probability of my going 1st being the deciding factor + 1/2 * the probability of my going first not being the deciding factor. 0 . 1 1 2 + 2 1 − 0 . 1 1 2 = 0 . 5 6 8
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