Suppose that 40% of the population of the community of Pathogen (population 60 00) have a virus. A test accurately detects the virus in 95% of the cases when the person has the virus , but FALSELY detects the virus in 10% of the cases when the person does not have the virus. EACH person is tested TWO times. If the two tests do not agree, the results are said to be INCONGRUENT . How many of the results would you expect to be INCONGRUENT?
note: Each of the 60 00 persons is given the test two times.
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We note that 2 4 0 0 people have the virus, and 3 6 0 0 do not. For each person who has the virus, the probability that the results are incongruent is 2 0 1 9 2 0 1 + 2 0 1 2 0 1 9 = 2 0 0 1 9 . This is true because we need both a positive and a negative result in order for our results to be incongruent, and these can happen in any order. Thus, we expect that about 2 4 0 0 ⋅ 2 0 0 1 9 = 2 2 8 of these will have the virus. Similarly, for those without the virus, the probability of incongruent results is 1 0 9 1 0 1 + 1 0 1 1 0 9 = 5 0 9 , and since there are 3 6 0 0 of these, we expect incongruent results on 3 6 0 0 ⋅ 5 0 9 = 6 4 8 of these. Thus, we expect a total of 6 4 8 + 2 2 8 = 8 7 6 people to have incongruent results.