Inside two heads

Consider the following experiment : You are given 4 coins. You toss them simultaneously and you get some sequence of heads and tails.
Then you remove one of the coins and toss the remaining three coins.
Finally remove one more coin and toss remaining two coins.

The probability that in each of these three steps, you get at most 2 heads can be written as a b \frac{a}{b} where a a and b b are coprime integers. What is the value of a + b a+b ?


I created this problem with the help of my friend Pankaj .


The answer is 205.

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3 solutions

Víctor Martín
Aug 7, 2014

The probability to get k k heads out of n n coins is ( n k ) 2 n = n ! 2 n ( n k ) ! k ! \frac { \left( \begin{matrix} n \\ k \end{matrix} \right) }{ 2^{ n } } = \frac { n! }{ { 2 }^{ n }(n-k)!k! } .

So, the probability to get 2 or less heads for every time you toss the coin is: 1 2 n k = 0 2 ( n k ) \frac { 1 }{ 2^{ n } } \quad \sum _{ k=0 }^{ 2 }{ \left( \begin{matrix} n \\ k \end{matrix} \right) } .

Finally, if you toss the coin with n = 4 , 3 , 2 n=4,3,2 coins, the final probability is: n = 2 4 ( 1 2 n k = 0 2 ( n k ) ) = 77 128 \prod _{ n=2 }^{ 4 }{ \left( \frac { 1 }{ 2^{ n } } \quad \sum _{ k=0 }^{ 2 }{ \left( \begin{matrix} n \\ k \end{matrix} \right) } \right) } =\frac { 77 }{ 128 } .

Hence, the answer is 77 + 128 = 205 77+128=\boxed{205}

forgot 0 heads

Priyanshu Pandey - 6 years, 8 months ago

Let X X be the number of heads turn out. Then for step 1:

P 1 ( 0 X 2 ) = P 1 ( X = 0 ) + P 1 ( X = 1 ) + P 1 ( X = 2 ) = 1 16 + 4 16 + 6 16 = 11 16 P_1(0\le X\le 2)=P_1(X=0)+P_1(X=1)+P_1(X=2)=\frac{1}{16}+\frac{4}{16}+\frac{6}{16}=\frac{11}{16}

Similarly, step 2:

P 2 ( 0 X 2 ) = 1 8 + 3 8 + 3 8 = 7 8 P_2(0\le X\le 2)=\frac{1}{8}+\frac{3}{8}+\frac{3}{8}=\frac{7}{8}

Step 3:

P 3 ( 0 X 2 ) = 1 P_3(0\le X\le 2)=1

The three steps together:

P ( 0 X 2 ) = P 1 P 2 P 3 = 11 16 × 7 8 × 1 = 77 128 = a b P(0\le X\le 2)=P_1P_2P_3=\frac{11}{16}\times \frac{7}{8}\times 1=\frac{77}{128}=\frac{a}{b}

a = 77 \Rightarrow a=77 , b = 128 b=128 and a + b = 205 a+b=\boxed{205} .

Lu Chee Ket
Aug 11, 2014

(0.5 x + 0.5 y)^4 = (x^4 + 4 x^3 y + 6 x^2 y^2 + 4 x y^3 + y^4)/ 16;

(0.5 x + 0.5 y)^3 = (x^3 + 3 x^2 y + 3 x y^2 + y^3)/ 8;

(0.5 x + 0.5 y)^2 = (x^2 + 2 x y + y^2)/ 4;

(11/ 16) else (5/ 16)

(7/ 8) else (1/ 8)

(4/ 4) else (0/ 4)

(11/ 16)(7/ 8)(4/ 4) = 77/ 128 for 205

else 1 - (5/ 16) - (1/ 8) - (0/ 4) = 9/ 16 for 25.

Answer is 205 for each and every steps are successful to achieve (AND Gates).

1 - (99/ 128) - (42/ 64) - (16/ 32) - (5/ 16) - (1/ 8) - (0/ 4) = - 1 - 47/ 128

Since 0 <= P <= 1, 9/ 16 for 25 is a wrong answer of a rush.

Lu Chee Ket - 6 years, 10 months ago

1 - P Q R or (1 - P)(1 - Q)(1 - R) are only forms. Not more than 1 OR-linkage. (0.49 x + 0.51 y)^n could be the case and therefore not reasonable to fix as a certain description.

Lu Chee Ket - 6 years, 10 months ago

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