Is it a miracle drug?

Probability Level 1

Pharmaceutical scientists have just developed a new cold medicine, dubbed MiraQuil.

The scientists put the drug through extensive clinical trials. They found that of the participants who had a cold and then received the drug, 98% of them experienced no cold symptoms after a week!

Have the scientists made a good case that their drug is effective? Should they start selling the drug?

Image Credit : MarkBuckawicki
Something doesn't seem right... Sell it now! We're gonna be rich!

Andy Hayes by Andy Hayes , 38, USA

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6 solutions

Andy Hayes
Jun 14, 2016

The most important piece of information missing from the clinical trials was the performance of the control group. Without knowing how cold-sufferers fare when they don't get the drug, it's not possible to know how effective the drug is.

It's pretty reasonable to assume that many cold symptoms will be gone after a week, even after not taking any medicine. It's possible that the control group had an equally "miraculous" result. However, without seeing the data, it's not possible to know.

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So even option B has a probability to be correct?

Abhishek Kumar - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Yeah, it does, since most people don't know that the drug is not effective.

Toffiklubitoffi Mrhwa - 3 years, 3 months ago

There's a chance that the drug is successful, but we can't say anything about the likelihood of the drug's success based on the information given.

Andrew Hayes Staff - 2 years, 3 months ago
Charles Andrews
May 15, 2017

Most colds resolve in a week on their own. There is no mention of how well the people did during the week that they took the medication so there is important missing information. There is no control group of people not given antibiotics. If at a week 98% of the untreated people are well, then the drug did nothing. If 98% of the untreated are hospitalized or dead then it's a miracle drug. The dispensers of the drug should be blinded to who gets the drug and who gets a placebo until the study is over.

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Do you mean "how well the control group did"?

David Mickisch - 3 years, 9 months ago
A.J. Rosingana
Feb 18, 2017

"Highly reliable" pharmasuedicals rarely reach above a ninetieth percentile in expected success across a broad set of demographics.

This is largely due to variance in efficacy across different delineating subgroups.

A fun side note: America features a measurably higher placebo margin than any other country.

(A "decent" success in clinical trials will yield 65-85 percentiles of moderate-strong success, with a larger margin of intermittent or partial function.)

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YuJin Kim
Feb 18, 2019

they don't have control, they don't have procedures, they don't have uncertainties attached to the probability. no!

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They should also wait to see if there is any side effects or interaction with other drugs. Say one is taking blood pressure drugs, they should test on that kind of person too!

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Brian Franzen
Dec 19, 2018

From my understanding and experience, the common cold lasts only 2 weeks. In the first week, almost no symptoms are felt, other than tiredness. Once the symptoms come out, then it's only another 5-7 days before the cold has run its course. So the probability of the group recovering on their own immune systems is higher than the probability of the drug curing them.

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