It's the least I could do ....

Suppose w , x , y w,x,y and z z are random real numbers chosen independently and uniformly from the interval [ 0 , 1 ] . [0,1].

If the expected value of the smallest of w , x , y , z w,x,y,z is a b \dfrac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are positive coprime integers, then find a + b . a + b.


The answer is 6.

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3 solutions

Introduce a fifth random variable v v chosen in the same manner as the other four. For fixed w , x , y , z w,x,y,z the probability that v < min ( w , x , y , z ) v \lt \min(w,x,y,z) is just min ( w , x , y , z ) . \min(w,x,y,z). So when we average over all choices of w , x , y , z w,x,y,z , the expected value of min ( w , x , y , z ) \min(w,x,y,z) is the probability that, once v , w , x , y , z v,w,x,y,z are chosen, we end up with v < min ( w , x , y , z ) . v \lt \min(w,x,y,z). But as the five variables v , w , x , y , z v,w,x,y,z are chosen in the same manner, the probability that any one of them is the least is just 1 5 \frac{1}{5} , and so a + b = 1 + 5 = 6 . a + b = 1 + 5 = \boxed{6}.

Let us deal with the particular case when x < y < z < w x<y<z<w .The probability and expectation for all other cases will be the same by symmetry.The probability density function is f ( x , y , z , w ) = 1 f(x,y,z,w) = 1 for 0 < x < 1 , 0 < y < 1 , 0 < z < 1 , 0 < w < 1 0<x<1\,\, , \,0<y<1\,\, , \,0<z<1,\,\,\,0<w<1 and 0 0 elsewhere. So in this case min ( x , y , z , w ) = x \min(x,y,z,w)=x .

The expectation will be given by:-

0 1 x 1 y 1 z 1 x d w d z d y d x = 1 120 \displaystyle \int_{0}^{1}\int_{x}^{1}\int_{y}^{1}\int_{z}^{1}x \,dw\,dz\,dy\,dx=\frac{1}{120} .

There are 4 ! = 24 4!=24 such ordered arrangements of x , y , z , w x,y,z,w like { ( x < y < z < w ) , ( x < z < y < w ) , . . . . . } \left\{(x<y<z<w),(x<z<y<w),.....\right\} . All of them will have equal probabilities and expectations by Symmetry. Hence by Total Probability we have the expectation as :- 24 120 = 1 5 \displaystyle \frac{24}{120} = \frac{1}{5} .

Note that this method can be generalized for n-variables. Then the expected value will be just n ! ( n + 1 ) ! = 1 n + 1 \displaystyle \frac{n!}{(n+1)!}=\frac{1}{n+1}

Brock Brown
Mar 1, 2015

Python:

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from random import random as r
trials = 10000000
total = 0.0
for trial in xrange(trials):
    total += min((r(),r(),r(),r()))
print "Answer:", round(total/trials,2)

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