Suppose w , x , y and z are random real numbers chosen independently and uniformly from the interval [ 0 , 1 ] .
If the expected value of the smallest of w , x , y , z is b a , where a and b are positive coprime integers, then find a + b .
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Let us deal with the particular case when x < y < z < w .The probability and expectation for all other cases will be the same by symmetry.The probability density function is f ( x , y , z , w ) = 1 for 0 < x < 1 , 0 < y < 1 , 0 < z < 1 , 0 < w < 1 and 0 elsewhere. So in this case min ( x , y , z , w ) = x .
The expectation will be given by:-
∫ 0 1 ∫ x 1 ∫ y 1 ∫ z 1 x d w d z d y d x = 1 2 0 1 .
There are 4 ! = 2 4 such ordered arrangements of x , y , z , w like { ( x < y < z < w ) , ( x < z < y < w ) , . . . . . } . All of them will have equal probabilities and expectations by Symmetry. Hence by Total Probability we have the expectation as :- 1 2 0 2 4 = 5 1 .
Note that this method can be generalized for n-variables. Then the expected value will be just ( n + 1 ) ! n ! = n + 1 1
Python:
1 2 3 4 5 6 |
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Introduce a fifth random variable v chosen in the same manner as the other four. For fixed w , x , y , z the probability that v < min ( w , x , y , z ) is just min ( w , x , y , z ) . So when we average over all choices of w , x , y , z , the expected value of min ( w , x , y , z ) is the probability that, once v , w , x , y , z are chosen, we end up with v < min ( w , x , y , z ) . But as the five variables v , w , x , y , z are chosen in the same manner, the probability that any one of them is the least is just 5 1 , and so a + b = 1 + 5 = 6 .