Probable Misconception

Probability Level 2

Where, in these 6 panels, does the father's biggest misconception lie?

Just to be clear, there are two panels in each row of the comic.

Image Credit: SMBC .
No copyright infringement intended.
Information in Panel 2 is invalid Reasoning in Panel 3 is flawed Reasoning in Panel 4 is flawed The father is right; there is no error

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Raj Magesh by Raj Magesh , 23, India

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2 solutions

Raj Magesh
Mar 19, 2016

The error in the father's reasoning is in Panel 4, when he assumes that there are only two outcomes of the primaries: either his candidate wins all three states, or her opponent wins all three states.

In reality, there are cases where neither of them win all three states and he neglects these when he simply does 100 % − 21.6 % = 78.4 % 100\%-21.6\%=78.4\% .

17 Helpful 0 Interesting 0 Brilliant 0 Confused

This is exactly the case.

Emre Kısacıkoğlu - 5 years, 2 months ago
Arjen Vreugdenhil
Mar 24, 2016

Probability of him winning all three states: 60 % 3 = 21.6 % 60\%^3 = 21.6\% .

Probability of her winning all three states: 40 % 3 = 6.4 % 40\%^3 = 6.4\% .

Probability that he wins one, she wins the other two: 3 ⋅ 60 % ⋅ 40 % 2 = 28.8 % 3\cdot 60\%\cdot 40\%^2 = 28.8\% .

Probability that he wins two, he wins the remaining one: 3 ⋅ 60 % 2 ⋅ 40 % = 43.2 % 3\cdot 60\%^2\cdot 40\% = 43.2\% .

The total of these f o u r four possible disjoint events is indeed 100 % 100\% .

5 Helpful 0 Interesting 0 Brilliant 0 Confused

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