Little ice age and sunspots

The Little Ice Age was a period of very cold temperatures between 1650-1700. Interestingly, this period coincided with a period of low sunspot activity, called the Maunder minimum. Sunspots, contrary to what you might think, are correlated with the radiance from the sun. While sunspots block radiation, they also appear when the sun is more active, and the net correlation is that the more sunspots, the more radiation from the sun. In the graph below, the total solar irradiance, or amount of energy the earth receives per square meter is shown. As you can see, there is indeed a very low number of sunspots during the Little Ice Age. If the total solar irradiance during the Little Ice Age is 1360.15 W/m 2 1360.15~\mbox{W/m}^2 , and the total solar irradiance today is at the peak of 1361.8 W/m 2 1361.8~\mbox{W/m}^2 , what is the corresponding temperature difference in Kelvin of the earth's surface, i.e. T t o d a y T L i t t l e I c e A g e T_{today}-T_{Little Ice Age} ?

Details and assumptions

  • Assume the earth radiates as a black body at its average temperature.
  • The temperature of the earth today is 287 K 287~\mbox{K} .
  • The earth is in equilibrium with the incident solar radiation.


The answer is 0.087.

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4 solutions

Tan Kiat
Nov 24, 2013

By the formula P = k T 4 P = kT^4 , where k k are product of constants that includes emissivity, area, and Stefan-Boltzmann constant, this proportional relation can be used to solve the problem.

Hence, by P t o d a y P L i t t l e I c e A g e = T t o d a y 4 T L i t t l e I c e A g e 4 \frac{P_{today}}{P_{LittleIceAge}} = \frac{T_{today}^4}{T_{LittleIceAge}^4} , plugging in

P t o d a y = 1361.8 W , P L i t t l e I c e A g e = 1360.15 , T t o d a y = 287 K P_{today} = 1361.8 W, P_{LittleIceAge} = 1360.15, T_{today} = 287 K , the value of T L i t t l e I c e A g e = 286.91 K T_{LittleIceAge} = 286.91 K

Hence, by T t o d a y T L i t t l e I c e A g e T_{today} - T_{LittleIceAge}

= 287 286.91 = 287 - 286.91

= 0.87 K = \boxed{0.87} K

Clear solution. Only one thing: there is a typo in the final result. Should be 0.087

Chael Kruip - 7 years, 6 months ago

Question: If we calculate the absolute temperatures directly by using Stefan's law, we get the values around 393 K 393 K (!!). What goes wrong there??

Snehal Shekatkar - 7 years, 6 months ago

Opps, sorry! Ya, it should be 0.087

Tan Kiat - 7 years, 6 months ago
Guillermo Angeris
Nov 28, 2013

The Stefan-Boltzmann law (which I shan't derive since it's well-available on the Wikipedia page ) dictates that, for some energy radiated per area, j j^* and some thermodynamic temperature T T : j = σ T 4 j^*=\sigma T^4

is true for the output for the temperature of a blackbody.

Since we are assuming equilibrium, then the converse also holds, but note that the Earth is not completely under sunlight, hence our constant, σ \sigma , doesn't. So, the most restrictive case we have is: j T 4 j^*\propto T^4

Since we are given the temperature and irradiance for one case, we can compute the proportionality constant l l , by: j 0 = l T 0 4 j_0^*=lT_0^4

Hence: j 0 T 0 4 = l = 1361.8 28 7 4 \frac{j_0^*}{T_0^4}=l=\frac{1361.8}{287^4}

So, for our final case gives us: j l 4 = T = 28 7 4 1361.8 1360.15 4 286.91303 K \sqrt[4]{\frac{j^*}{l}}=T=\sqrt[4]{\frac{287^4}{1361.8}\cdot 1360.15}\approx286.91303\text{ K}

Which, finally yields: T 0 T 287 286.91303 = 0.08697 K T_0-T\approx 287-286.91303=0.08697\text{ K}

Our answer.

Question: If we calculate the absolute temperatures directly by using Stefan's law, we get the values around 393 K 393 K (!!). What goes wrong there??

Snehal Shekatkar - 7 years, 6 months ago

Log in to reply

I mentioned it in my solution. Since we are discussing equilibrium, the relation goes from Temperature to radiance, the difference is that the body is not being illuminated entiely, so the constant doesn't hold.

Guillermo Angeris - 7 years, 6 months ago
Iam Mangod96
Nov 26, 2013

We know from Stefan's law that P = aAT^{4} where P = Power a = stefan's constant T= temperature

In this question we are given P/A ratios. SO taking ratio of these ratios- 1360.15/1361.8 = (T/287)^{4} We get T = 286.013 SO T1 - T2 = 0.08697

Shubham Kumar
Nov 28, 2013

For a black body ratio of solar irradiance(E) and fourth power of temperature(T^4) remains constant, i.e.,

E/(T^4) = constant(say k)

Let E1 and T1 be irradiance and temperature of Eath Little Ice Period and E2 and T2 be irradiance and temperature of Earth today.

(E1)/((T1)^4) = (E2)/((T2)^4)

((T1)^4) = (1360.15/1360.8) * (287^4)

T1 = 286.913 K

T2 - T1 = 287 - 286.913 = 0.087 (Ans)

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