At the end of day 0, six magical seeds are planted.
On each day following, each seed has a change to magically transform into an apple tree with a probability ofOnce a seed transforms into apple tree, it stays an apple tree and survives indefinitely.
What is the expected number of days until all six seeds have become an apple trees?
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Let N j be the number of days until the j th seed transforms. Then ,for any 1 ≤ j ≤ 6 , P [ N j = k ] = 2 − k for all k ≥ 1 , and so P [ N j ≤ k ] = 1 − 2 − k for all k ≥ 0 . If M is the number of days until all six seeds have transformed, then M = m a x ( N 1 , N 2 , N 3 , N 4 , N 5 , N 6 ) , and so P [ M ≤ k ] = P [ N 1 , N 2 , N 3 , N 4 , N 5 , N 6 ≤ k ] = P [ N 1 ≤ k ] 6 = ( 1 − 2 − k ) 6 for all k ≥ 0 , and hence P [ m ≥ k + 1 ] = 1 − ( 1 − 2 − k ) 6 = j = 1 ∑ 6 ( − 1 ) j − 1 ( j 6 ) 2 − j k for all k ≥ 0 , so that E [ M ] = k ≥ 0 ∑ P [ M ≥ k + 1 ] = k = 0 ∑ ∞ j = 1 ∑ 6 ( − 1 ) j − 1 ( j 6 ) 2 − j k = j = 1 ∑ 6 ( − 1 ) j − 1 ( j 6 ) 2 j − 1 2 j = 1 9 5 3 7 8 8 0 making the answer 7 8 8 0 + 1 9 5 3 = 9 8 3 3 .