Magical seeds!

Probability Level pending

At the end of day 0, six magical seeds are planted. On each day following, each seed has a change to magically transform into an apple tree with a probability of 1 2 \frac{1}{2}

Once a seed transforms into apple tree, it stays an apple tree and survives indefinitely.

What is the expected number of days until all six seeds have become an apple trees?

Note:

  • If the answer is a fraction ( m n \frac{m}{n} ) then give answer as m + n m+n


The answer is 9833.

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1 solution

Mark Hennings
Nov 6, 2018

Let N j N_j be the number of days until the j j th seed transforms. Then ,for any 1 j 6 1 \le j \le 6 , P [ N j = k ] = 2 k P[N_j = k] = 2^{-k} for all k 1 k \ge 1 , and so P [ N j k ] = 1 2 k P[N_j \le k] = 1 - 2^{-k} for all k 0 k \ge 0 . If M M is the number of days until all six seeds have transformed, then M = m a x ( N 1 , N 2 , N 3 , N 4 , N 5 , N 6 ) M = \mathrm{max}(N_1,N_2,N_3,N_4,N_5,N_6) , and so P [ M k ] = P [ N 1 , N 2 , N 3 , N 4 , N 5 , N 6 k ] = P [ N 1 k ] 6 = ( 1 2 k ) 6 P[M \le k] \; = \; P[N_1,N_2,N_3,N_4,N_5,N_6 \le k] \; = \; P[N_1 \le k]^6 \; = \; \big(1 - 2^{-k}\big)^6 for all k 0 k \ge 0 , and hence P [ m k + 1 ] = 1 ( 1 2 k ) 6 = j = 1 6 ( 1 ) j 1 ( 6 j ) 2 j k P[m \ge k+1] \; = \; 1 - \big(1 - 2^{-k}\big)^6 \; = \; \sum_{j=1}^6 (-1)^{j-1}\binom{6}{j}2^{-jk} for all k 0 k \ge 0 , so that E [ M ] = k 0 P [ M k + 1 ] = k = 0 j = 1 6 ( 1 ) j 1 ( 6 j ) 2 j k = j = 1 6 ( 1 ) j 1 ( 6 j ) 2 j 2 j 1 = 7880 1953 E[M] \; = \; \sum_{k \ge 0}P[M \ge k+1] \; = \; \sum_{k=0}^\infty \sum_{j=1}^6 (-1)^{j-1}\binom{6}{j}2^{-jk} \; = \; \sum_{j=1}^6(-1)^{j-1}\binom{6}{j}\frac{2^j}{2^j-1} \; = \; \frac{7880}{1953} making the answer 7880 + 1953 = 9833 7880 + 1953 = \boxed{9833} .

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