Mind Blown!?!?!?

Among 100 100 points in a plane, no three collinear, exactly 4026 4026 pairs are connected by line segments. Each point is then randomly assigned an integer from 1 1 to 100 100 inclusive, each equally likely, such that no integer appears more than once. Find the expected value of the number of segments which join two points whose labels differ by at least 50 50 .


The answer is 1037.

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1 solution

Patrick Corn
Dec 4, 2017

There are 4950 4950 pairs of points, of which we choose 4026 4026 to connect with segments. Exactly 1275 1275 of these pairs have labels differing by at least 50. 50. So we'd expect that 1275 / 4950 1275/4950 of the segments join such pairs, which would give us an answer of 1275 4950 4026 = 1037 . \frac{1275}{4950} \cdot 4026 = \fbox{1037}. This is indeed the correct answer.

Why? In general, if S S and T T are two subsets of a finite set X , X, chosen randomly among all the subsets with size a a and b b respectively, then the expected size of S T S \cap T is a b X . \frac{ab}{|X|}. This is due to the fact that the expected value of a sum of random variables is additive , even if the variables are dependent. We can apply this by writing T = { t 1 , t 2 , , t b } , T = \{t_1, t_2, \ldots, t_b\}, and considering the random variables Y i = { 1 if t i S 0 if t i S . Y_i = \begin{cases} 1 &\text{if } t_i \in S \\ 0 & \text{if } t_i \notin S. \end{cases} Then E ( S T ) = i E ( Y i ) = b E ( Y 1 ) = b a / X , E(|S \cap T|) = \sum_i E(Y_i) = b E(Y_1) = b \cdot a/|X|, as desired.

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