Missing!
The ship The Mathews Men sailed from Cuba, with a destination of Gales Neck, and never reached port.
Pirates have been spotted near the run. On any given voyage, there is a 5% chance that pirates are encountered. If they are, the ship is captured and the crew ransomed.
Even without the pirates, the run is dangerous. There is 1 chance in 19 that the ship will be sunk in a storm on any given attempt to run the route.
As a percentage, what are the chances that the reason the ship failed to make the crossing was because it was captured by pirates?
(Assume that if a vessel is going to be captured by pirates, it will happen within 2 hours of leaving port, before it has a chance to reach the open ocean where the storms are.)
The answer is 50.00.
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1 solution
Moderator note:
Good approach using a numerical calculation.
Assume that 100 ships attempt the run.
5 of them will be captured by pirates.
Of the remaining 95, 1/19 of them -- 5 more ships -- will be sunk by a storm.
So of the 10 ships that fail to make it, 5 of them --- 50% exactly --- were captured by pirates.