If I were to roll a fair die 1000 times, the probability that the sum of the rolls would be divisible by 4 can be expressed as
, where is an integer.
Determine to the nearest integer.
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Consider P ( x ) = ( x + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 + x 6 ) 1 0 0 0
In the expansion, for every roll combination with a sum of k there is a single x k .
Let s k be the number of roll combinations with a sum congruent to k modulo 4 .
Then P ( i ) = s 0 − s 2 + ( s 1 − s 3 ) i since for each sum congruent to k modulo 4 there is an extra 1 , i , − 1 , − i respectively in the expansion.
P ( i ) = ( i − 1 ) 1 0 0 0 = ( 2 c i s ( 3 π / 4 ) ) 1 0 0 0 = 2 5 0 0 c i s ( 7 5 0 π ) = 2 5 0 0
Thus s 1 = s 3 and s 0 − s 2 = 2 5 0 0
Now let's relate the number of odd-sum permutations to the number of even-sum permutations.
There are a variety of ways to see why they are equal, but keeping with the theme, we see that P ( − 1 ) = 0 = ( s 0 + s 2 ) − ( s 1 + s 3 ) .
Since s 0 + s 1 + s 2 + s 3 = 6 1 0 0 0 , we have s 0 + s 2 = 6 1 0 0 0 / 2 .
Therefore s 0 = 2 6 1 0 0 0 / 2 + 2 5 0 0
= 4 6 1 0 0 0 + 2 4 9 9
n 1 = 6 1 0 0 0 2 4 9 9
ln n = 1 0 0 0 ln 6 − 4 9 9 ln 2 = 1 4 4 5 . 8 8