Modular Dice

Probability Level pending

If I were to roll a fair die 1000 times, the probability that the sum of the rolls would be divisible by 4 can be expressed as

1 4 + 1 n \dfrac{1}{4} + \dfrac{1}{n} , where n n is an integer.

Determine ln n \ln{n} to the nearest integer.


The answer is 1446.

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1 solution

Eilon Lavi
Mar 13, 2015

Consider P ( x ) = ( x + x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + x 5 + x 6 ) 1000 P(x)=(x+x^2+x^3+x^4+x^5+x^6)^{1000}

In the expansion, for every roll combination with a sum of k k there is a single x k x^k .

Let s k s_k be the number of roll combinations with a sum congruent to k k modulo 4 4 .

Then P ( i ) = s 0 s 2 + ( s 1 s 3 ) i P(i)=s_0-s_2+(s_1-s_3)i since for each sum congruent to k k modulo 4 4 there is an extra 1 , i , 1 , i 1,i,-1, -i respectively in the expansion.

P ( i ) = ( i 1 ) 1000 = ( 2 c i s ( 3 π / 4 ) ) 1000 = 2 500 c i s ( 750 π ) = 2 500 P(i)=(i-1)^{1000}=(\sqrt{2} \mathrm{cis}( 3\pi/4))^{1000}=2^{500} \mathrm{cis}( 750 \pi) = 2^{500}

Thus s 1 = s 3 s_1=s_3 and s 0 s 2 = 2 500 s_0-s_2=2^{500}

Now let's relate the number of odd-sum permutations to the number of even-sum permutations.

There are a variety of ways to see why they are equal, but keeping with the theme, we see that P ( 1 ) = 0 = ( s 0 + s 2 ) ( s 1 + s 3 ) P(-1)=0=(s_0+s_2)-(s_1+s_3) .

Since s 0 + s 1 + s 2 + s 3 = 6 1000 s_0+s_1+s_2+s_3=6^{1000} , we have s 0 + s 2 = 6 1000 / 2 s_0+s_2=6^{1000}/2 .

Therefore s 0 = 6 1000 / 2 + 2 500 2 s_0=\dfrac{6^{1000}/2+2^{500}}{2}

= 6 1000 4 + 2 499 =\dfrac{6^{1000}}{4}+2^{499}

1 n = 2 499 6 1000 \dfrac{1}{n}=\dfrac{2^{499}}{6^{1000}}

ln n = 1000 ln 6 499 ln 2 = 1445.88 \ln{n}=1000\ln{6}-499\ln{2}=1445.88

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