n-sided die

You have a fair, 20-sided die. Fix some side of the die, say side S i S_{i} . How many rolls, on average, will it take for side S i S_{i} to land face up?

[Hint: expected value problem]


The answer is 20.

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1 solution

John Wroblewski
Aug 17, 2017

Let X i X_{i} be a random variable, defined as follows: 1 if all dice rolls up to and including the i'th dice roll are not side S i S_{i} . Else it takes the value 0. Now we see the problem can be phrased in terms of calculating the following expected value problem: find E [ i = 0 X i ] E[\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} X_{i}] . We know from LOE that E [ i = 0 X i ] = i = 0 E [ X i ] E[\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} X_{i}] = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty}E[X_{i}] .

Now let's calculate E [ X i ] E[X_{i}] . From the definition, it equals 1 P ( X i = 1 ) + 0 P ( X i = 0 ) 1*P(X_{i} = 1) + 0*P(X_{i} = 0) . The second term vanishes and we need only find the probability that X i = 1 X_{i} = 1 . For this to be true, all dice rolls up to and including the i'th roll are not S i S_{i} . Thus we have a probability of ( 19 / 20 ) i (19/20)^i that X i = 1 X_{i} = 1 .

Now we use the geometric series to see that i = 0 E [ X i ] = i = 0 ( 19 / 20 ) i = 1 / ( 1 ( 19 / 20 ) ) = 20 \sum_{i=0}^{\infty}E[X_{i}] = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} (19/20)^i = 1/(1-(19/20)) = 20 .

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