Not a trick question, part 1

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If Omega put $1,000,000 in box A A and $1000 in box B B , which option should you choose to maximize your wealth?

Note: You get to keep the money in any box(es) you open.

Open both boxes Open just box A A

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25 solutions

Zakaria Salameh
Mar 16, 2016

case 1: omega predicts you open onlyA If you open A you get 1000000 If you open both you get 1001000 Case 2: if omega predicts you open both If you open A only you get zero. If you open both you get 1000. So in both cases choosing to open both will give you the highest payoff.

But omega always predicts correctly, so if it predicted that you'd open both, your only option is to open both, and therefore get $1000. If it predicts that you open only A, then your only option is to open A. Another way to look at it is thus: whatever you do, omega will have predicted, and thus, if you open both, you will only get $1000, there is no scenario where you can open both and get the million

Grant Massingham - 5 years, 3 months ago

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I totally agree with you. My approach was on the belief that the omega always predicts correctly, though being unrealistic. So, whenever we'll choose both boxes, we are always gonna get $1000. And we'll never get $0 on opening just box A. So, talking about getting $1, 001,000 is an absurd statement....

Manavi Shukla - 5 years, 3 months ago

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Agreed. My answer hinged on that word "perfectly," which left the only logical option opening just Box A.

David Feder - 5 years, 3 months ago

That's the way I see it. If you open both boxes, it implies that Omega predicted that you would open both and you only get $1000.

Elyse Zois - 5 years, 3 months ago

I think this is a dinner part of that question without the preface that he places money based on his predictions of your actions

T.j. Pankiewicz - 5 years, 3 months ago

I agree with Grant. If I open only A, I will always get 1.000.000, and there is no way you can get 1.001.000, so, for me, the best option is to open only A.

Alexandre Sombra - 5 years, 3 months ago

But if he predicts only A wouldn't it be impossible for you to open AB since he is always right? That's what I'm getting caught on...

Jake Schreiner - 5 years, 3 months ago

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He doesn't predict only A, he always predicts correctly . Meaning, if you move forward with the intent to open both boxes, there will be $1000 in them as Omega would have predicted this course of action and placed the money accordingly. If however, you move forward with the intent of only opening box A, you get $1000000.

Stated another way, whichever choice you make (A or AB), the money will always be distributed as if you your decision had already been made

Brett Alfred - 5 years, 3 months ago

Newcomb's Paradox is in fact a trick question as the academic community is still divided on which answer is correct, I find it highly unlikely that "Brilliant" has solved it.

Jeff Garden - 1 year, 10 months ago

I do not agree. If your thought process indicates that you should open both boxes, omega would have had predicted that hence it would have left box A empty. As a result, you should commit to only open box A. If omega is infallible, it is the only way it would put the money in box A.

Juan Manuel Rodriguez - 11 months, 3 weeks ago

there is nothing in the description about prediction, it's not really newcomb's paradox

Niamh Simpson - 2 months, 3 weeks ago
Mahmud Dony
Mar 8, 2016

why you take less while you can get more.Isn't $1,001,000 more than $1,000,000 ?

In the question it is stated that Omega can perfectly predict actions, meaning Omega will always know which box you will open. If you only open Box A, you'll get $1million. If you open both, you will get only $1000. Therefore, opening ONLY Box A is the logical choice to maximize your reward, because Omega will know you'll only open A with their "perfect prediction" abilities and will therefore put $1million in Box A.

Eduardo Maia - 4 years, 10 months ago

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There is no statement saying that the fact that box A is opaque and has either $1,000,000 or $0 in it depends on your choice or on the robot, so it looks like completely randomized

nikarko01 . - 3 years, 3 months ago

This problem is a failure; as there is an option to open both boxes it means risk is zero, why would someone take any risk when there is an option with no risk?

Déo Melgaço - 4 years, 10 months ago
Avant Mehta
Mar 16, 2016

Try to get the best worst case scenario. Opening just box A gives you 0$, and opening both boxes gives 1000$. Hence both boxes should be opened

If Omega predicted that we will open Box A, he will give us $1 million in Box A. If we open both boxes (which Omega will predict), we will get only $1000.

So opening just Box A gets us more money, which obviously is the objective and need not be stated expressly. Also, once we choose to open Box A, we cannot open the other Box and still comply with Omega's prediction, which has to be correct.

Thus, we follow the second line of reasoning and open only Box A, and get a millions dollars.

Nikhil Dubey - 5 years, 3 months ago
David Rector
Dec 12, 2017

WTF? The main part of the "paradox", which is the part where the money in box A is based on how the agent predicts you will pick, is not mentioned at all here. There is only $1,000,000.00 in box A if the agent predicts that you will pick box A, according to the Wikipedia article. The agent is supposedly always right. Therefore, you should only pick box A or you will just get the $1000.00 from box B.

Or did I totally read the Wikipedia article wrong on this one? The question as stated is not interesting at all.

Here's what Wikipedia says:

Box B is clear, and always contains a visible $1,000. Box A is opaque, and its content has already been set by the predictor: * If the predictor has predicted the player will take both boxes A and B, then box A contains nothing. * If the predictor has predicted that the player will take only box A, then box A contains $1,000,000.

You are 1000 % correct .. Box A is so right If box B is transparent it’s clear there no money inside Just a thousand dollars The question is loaded.. If it was my choice A box is it. The premise To Open Both and Get 101,000 Dollars is wrong. The part that buy opening both boxes just wins 1000 Dollars is point the others are not understanding

William Ziegler - 3 years, 3 months ago
Kevin Coombes
Dec 10, 2016

Obviously open both - you can't lose. Seems too easy to me.

Seriously. I looked at this and was like "wait what's the problem?"

Mike Danek - 4 years, 3 months ago
Adam Strandberg
Feb 20, 2016

If there is $1,000,000 in box A A and $1000 in box B B , then opening just box A A will get you only $1,000,000, whereas opening both boxes will get you $1,001,000.

In the question it is stated that Omega can perfectly predict actions, meaning Omega will always know which box you will open. If you only open Box A, you'll get $1million. If you open both, you will get only $1000. Therefore, opening ONLY Box A is the logical choice to maximize your reward, because Omega will know you'll only open A with their "perfect prediction" abilities and will therefore put $1million in Box A.

Corbin Trexler - 5 years, 3 months ago

Still the question just ask you which box you open. At the same time don't tell you what is the objective you need to get. So is confusing grin that point. It is understandable that one might want to use the option that provide one with more money but if that is not the requirements?

Felipe D. - 5 years, 3 months ago

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I agree. Thre is no objective stated in the problem. Why would I open a transparent box, anyway?

This is a survey question. Not a logic test. Non sense. It should not be here.

Jackson Uy - 5 years, 3 months ago

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It's not transparent. It's opaque. One part explains it could have $1M or $0, you don't know which, but another part says the bot put $1M in. So now I know... there's money in it for sure. Thing is, I don't understand why I'm given the choice to only open box A or both boxes? I just figured I get whatever is in both boxes that I open without question of consequence.

Jeff Carter - 5 years, 3 months ago

If Omega predicted that you open both, there will be $0 in A and $1,000 in B as the original question states. If you open both, you only get $1,000 whereas if you open just A, the bot already predicted that you will pick just A and there will be $1,000,000 in A. The best bet is to open just A.

Ryan Wallace - 5 years, 3 months ago

But omega always predicts correctly, so if it predicted that you'd open both, your only option is to open both, and therefore get $1000. If it predicts that you open only A, then your only option is to open A. Another way to look at it is thus: whatever you do, omega will have predicted, and thus, if you open both, you will only get $1000, there is no scenario where you can open both and get the million

Grant Massingham - 5 years, 3 months ago

Nope. It says opening both boxes gives you only $1000 in Box B and $0 in Box A.

David Feder - 5 years, 3 months ago

Please can you make the question self contained?

Jeremy Ho - 4 years, 10 months ago

What's wrong about having $1,001,000. isn't it better ?

Moaz Fathy - 5 years, 3 months ago

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There is no scenario where this is possible

Brett Alfred - 5 years, 3 months ago

If you choose to open both boxes, then you get $1,000. If you choose to open just Box A, then you get $1,000,000. You can't choose to open one box then open both, because Omega would predict that change.

Sameer Pai - 5 years, 2 months ago
Leonid Poliakov
Oct 9, 2020

$1m + $1k > $1k

Jerry Smith
May 8, 2020

There's no reason not to maximize your odds of getting the most money.

Meng Kiat
Mar 28, 2020

Who don't want more money?

Mark Ainley
May 17, 2019

Maximise by taking both.

Lukasz Polanski
Apr 12, 2019

The questions suggests that Omega puts money in both boxes. Therefore to get the most you open both of the boxes.

Nikhil Sultania
Mar 31, 2019

omega has already put the money in . it's not in a superposition like quantum mechanics. therefore we are just adding a 1000$ more to our prize(0 or 1,000,000)

Jerome Te
Oct 18, 2018

You will obviously get $1000 more if you open both boxes than if you just open one.

ChiniChim Cadion
May 9, 2018

for me I have trouble in trust issues that's why I decided to open both boxes to reveal itself if it contains the money or not. Better safe than to be sorry hahaha

Its better to chose the option without the risk of getting 0

Ken Tune
Jun 30, 2017

If you open one box, you get the contents of that box. If you open two boxes, you get the contents of both boxes. Since neither box contains less than $0, you can never reduce your returns by opening both boxes.

Siva Budaraju
May 12, 2017

This problem is SO much easier than Newcomb's paradox, since we already know beforehand that there is $1000000 in box A! So it can easily be seen that taking both will give a $1000 higher payoff.

Neil Kenning
Apr 19, 2017

It has me foxed why this is a problem at all? There's no penalty for opening both boxes. However, if you introduced some sort of rate of return equation and probability of return for each of the boxes, then you could calculate your best return over time, which might be simply flipping one of the boxes only ...

Joe Duerr
Apr 5, 2017

Opening both you get all there is to be had regardless of what is in them.

Donnie Sears
Mar 31, 2017

If you get all the money from the ones you open. Open both, you get all the money there is no matter what.

Stephen Symchych
Mar 28, 2017

Either way you get $1,000. Add even a tiny probability (not specified here) and you do a shade better, on average. Why not?

Given that the problem statement indicates there is money in both boxes, opening both maximizes wealth.

P Newbon
Mar 17, 2017

This is not just a logic question, it's also one of trusting your judgement in selection, It states it's not a trick question, but the mind is still un-trusting even though the logic screams at you........ Overcoming those thoughts and coming to a correct answer is half the battle.

Jan Stokes
Mar 12, 2017

Obviously open both boxes because it's a win win situation.

Utkarsh Kukreti
Mar 9, 2016

I m greedy!! Would definitely want both boxes to open.

You should open Box A first, If Aliend is good at prediction, it should have 1M and you do not need to open box B, if it has 0, then the Alien already predicted you open both box and you only get 10,000.

Of course if you have the intention to open both box, you can keep what is in the two boxes but also have a chance that you end up with only 10,000. Open A only and you might get 1M. You can always change your mind and open both after you get the million. ;-)

Demetrio Chuasieng - 5 years, 3 months ago

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