Number of outcomes is all that matters

True or False?

If I toss a fair coin once, then the only possible outcomes are heads or tails with equal probabilities. So the probability of obtaining a head from a single toss is 1 2 \frac12 .

If I toss a fair coin twice, then the only possible outcomes are "2 heads," "2 tails" or "1 head and 1 tail," again with equal probabilities. So the probability of obtaining "1 head and 1 tail" from two tosses is 1 3 \frac13 .

True False

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11 solutions

Avik Das
May 21, 2017

The 1st Case is true but in the 2nd case, there are 4 outcomes​ i.e. HH, HT, TH, TT. so there is 1/4 chances to get HH or TT and 1/2 chance to get one head and one tail. So 2nd case is false

this is unfair the question image shows 3 combinations only and subsequently labeled them as 1/3 if it wasn't for that the answer would obviously be 1/2 but that image gives people the idea that the combination HT and TH as 1 possibility only., This Question is wrong.

Itami Kun - 4 years ago

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The images were not purposely drawn to be accurate.

Pi Han Goh - 4 years ago

You were talking about POSSIBILITIES not COMBINATIONS, TH and HT should be The same thing

Raphael Andrade - 4 years ago

@Avik Das I think you're misunderstanding the second statement. Because it is not specific as to which coin has to be heads and which has to be tails, the odds of obtaining one heads and one tails is 1/3

Rhys Denno - 3 years, 11 months ago

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Why does it need to be specific? All we care about are the number of different possible outcomes.

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 11 months ago

Great.

Bonus question: If I toss a fair coin 5 times, is it true that the probability of obtaining (2 heads and 3 tails) is the same as the probability of obtaining (3 heads and 2 tails)?

Pi Han Goh - 4 years ago

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Yes, because of symmetry.

Siva Budaraju - 4 years ago
Terry Yu
May 14, 2017

You could get two heads, two tails, first one head then a tail, or first a tail then a head. 2 ways out of 4 ways is a 1 2 \boxed{\dfrac{1}{2}} chance of getting a tail and a head.

Moderator note:

This problem contains one of the most common errors in probability, not counting permutations as separate (that is, considering heads-tails and tails-heads to be identical and getting 1 out of 3 rather than 1 out of 4 ways).

More generally, it would be nice if people could move beyond uniform distributions.

Richard Desper - 4 years ago

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Yep. That's why even maths professors could not get the Monty Hall Problem right.

Zoe Codrington - 2 years, 9 months ago

you got from this HH and HT and TH and TT so the solution is 0.5 as HT and TH aree the same solution you got 2 from 4 so you got 0.5

Mahmoud Mongy - 4 years ago

But why should we really count HT and TH as different configurations, aren't they the same thing?

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There is "the same thing" and "the number of ways to arrive at that thing". You have to account for the specific procedure used we counting the number of ways to arrive at one heads and one tails; there are specifically two ways.

Jason Dyer Staff - 4 years ago

They are the same combination, but there are extra ways to get to that combination

Zoe Codrington - 2 years, 9 months ago

I simply looked at it as you get a 50 percent chance of a 50 percent chance. So, a 25 percent chance of obtaining any combination.And since there are 4 different combinations...

William Reed - 4 years ago

? You could get one head one tail in either order making it one possibility out of 3, whereas 2 have or 2 tails the order doesn't matter.

Matthew Ross - 4 years ago
Akash Patalwanshi
May 15, 2017

Let denote head by H and tail by T then possible outcomes of tossing a fair coin twice are

HH, TT, HT or TH

Hence the probability of obtaining HT is 1 / 2 \boxed{1/2}

If you are going to list HT and TH as separate events, the probability of HT is 1/4. (Notation abuse.)

Richard Desper - 4 years ago

The very format of your question tends to be misleading. It was not immediately clear whether you were asking >two< questions or just one question with a somewhat confusing "compound" format.

John Gerig - 4 years ago
Noel Lo
May 21, 2017

There are not one, but two possibilities for a head and a tail because we have two coins, meaning we can choose either one to be the head (which equivalently means the other coin would be the tail). So in all, we have four possibilities, not three. The rest of the result follows easily.

Fergus Keane
May 26, 2017

The first toss becomes a given (heads or tails). Then we toss again to get the opposite (tails or heads) for which the probability is 50%.

Yes, nice way of interpreting this question.

Pi Han Goh - 4 years ago

There exists the possibility, however small, that any tossed coin may land on its side.

Regardless, the second ignores one possibility (a H/T combination)

  • coin 1:H coin2:H
  • coin 1:H coin2:T
  • coin 1:T coin2:H
  • coin 1:T coin2:T

Each of the four are "equally likely" and two of the four have 1H 1T so probability is still 1/2.

Satyajeet Chavan
May 22, 2017

You may get TH or HT so this makes the probability 2/4...or 1/2

Why do we care about the order of T and H, aren't they the same: one head and one tail?

Christopher Boo - 4 years ago

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no, you could get a heads first, and then after that you could get a tails. Or you could get a tails first, and then get a heads. So that mean there are 4 possible outcome: H H, T T, H T, T H. And then the fraction is 1/4

Charlotte Oldroyd - 4 years ago
Q Z
May 27, 2017

P ( H T ) = P ( H ) × P ( T ) = 1 2 × 1 2 = 1 4 P(H \land T) = P(H) \times P(T) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4} , where H and T are mutually exclusive.

Note that I asked for Probability of (1 heads and 1 tails), it doesn't matter which event comes first, so your calculation is wrong.

Pi Han Goh - 4 years ago
Mike McCreery
May 25, 2017

It just didn't​ seem right to me.

Joseph White
May 24, 2017

Keep it simple: It is irrelevant whether the first toss is a head or a tail, the chance of getting the opposite from the second toss is simple - 50% ie: 1 in 2 !

James,

Vancouver BC

This explains why it's 50%, but why is the explanation in the problem statement wrong?

Christopher Boo - 4 years ago

well that certainly sounds right... it just seems too simple now lol

Rhys Denno - 3 years, 11 months ago
Aleksej Burakov
May 22, 2017

If you consider the possibility of the coin landing on its rim, then all the cases are false

If we don't consider landing on its rim, is the answer still false?

Christopher Boo - 4 years ago

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No. I mean, then all the other explanations are correct

Zoe Codrington - 2 years, 9 months ago

Of course, but how unlikely is that? And this is assuming it won't

Zoe Codrington - 2 years, 9 months ago

I thought of that quite often when I was younger

Zoe Codrington - 2 years, 9 months ago

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