Odd Even Probabilities

If I randomly pick a card from the ten above (ace = 1), then the probability of it having an odd number or an even number is equal.

If I instead randomly pick two distinct cards from the ten above, is the probability of the two numbers having an odd sum or an even sum still equal?

Yes No

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22 solutions

Zee Ell
Jan 13, 2018

There are 5 odd and 5 even numbers between 1 and 10.

We can get an even sum, iff we add either two even or two odd numbers.

We can get an odd sum, iff we add an odd and an even number (in any order).

If we pick an even number first, then we can choose the second (distinct) number out of 4 even and 5 odd numbers (and vice versa).

Therefore, the probability of getting an odd sum:

p ( S odd ) = p ( e v e n , o d d ) + p ( o d d , e v e n ) = 5 10 × 5 9 + 5 10 × 5 9 = 5 9 p( S_\text{odd} ) = p(even, odd) + p(odd, even) = \frac {5}{10} × \frac {5}{9} + \frac {5}{10} × \frac {5}{9} = \frac {5}{9}

And the probability of getting an even sum:

p ( S even ) = 1 p ( S odd ) = 1 5 9 = 4 9 p( S_\text{even} ) = 1 - p( S_\text{odd} ) = 1 - \frac {5}{9} = \frac {4}{9}

Hence, it is more likely to get an odd sum and our answer should be:

No \boxed { \text {No} }

Why "1 - 5/9"? From where that 1 comes from? And my result in 5/10 x 5/9 plus 5/10 x 5/9 is equal to 5/18.

Camila Fonseca - 3 years, 4 months ago

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(5/10)(5/9) + (5/10)(5/9) factor out a (5/9) --> (5/9)(5/10 + 5/10) ---> one half plus one half is 1 --> (5/9)(1) = 5/9

Since the sum is either odd or even, once you have the odd probability, you just subtract it from 100% (or 1) to get the even probability.

Jason Dyer Staff - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Now I understand, thank you!

Camila Fonseca - 3 years, 4 months ago

You can also do the calculation for the even sum and it will give the same result. { (5/10) x (4/9) } + { (5/10) x (4/9) } = 4/9 (pOdd1 x pOdd2) + (pEven1 x pEven2) = Result

Juan Monreal - 3 years, 3 months ago

I still don't understand your solution. How did you get five-ninth?

A Former Brilliant Member - 3 years, 4 months ago

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After using one card, there are 9 left.

Jason Dyer Staff - 3 years, 4 months ago

Pretty tough one

Ryan Matthew - 3 years, 4 months ago

So it's like a mini proof for Chebyshevs bias

Ryan Matthew - 3 years, 4 months ago

What happens to the square of a number 4n+1 or 4n+3 and how could that be relevant here? I have a feeling it is

Ryan Matthew - 3 years, 4 months ago

wow, every integer is either a square or the sum or TWO squares! odd

Ryan Matthew - 3 years, 4 months ago

Please fix the typo in the solution generator Possibly also add a randomised variant would be cool

Hani Malcolm Ibrahim - 3 years, 4 months ago

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What is a solution generator?

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 4 months ago

I don't really get this problem How is the answer no? It seems like it's equal. I would rate this problem a 9 because I didn't really get it. At First I thought it was going to be easy but then I realised that there must be more to to this. It's a pretty challenging question.

Lucia Tiberio - 3 years, 4 months ago

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I recommend trying the problem with a smaller set of cards, like 4 (needs to be an even number for the setup to work), and just list everything out.

Jason Dyer Staff - 3 years, 4 months ago

[Updated!] Not entirely sure I would agree that the two "picks" were done sequentially is explicitly required from the problem specification. Suppose you pick the two cards simultaneously. In this case there are 4 equally likely outcomes: EE, EO, OE, OO. Two even sums and two odd sums.

OK, I rescind my claim that simultaneity matters. I wrote up a quick simulation and confirmed this result regardless if the cards were picked at the same time or one at a time. Thanks for the great explanation

Jim Powers - 3 years, 4 months ago

Thank you for the great explanation! You can also do the calculation for the even sum and it will give the same result. { (5/10) x (4/9) } + { (5/10) x (4/9) } = 4/9 (pOdd1 x pOdd2) + (pEven1 x pEven2)

Juan Monreal - 3 years, 3 months ago
Arjen Vreugdenhil
Jan 21, 2018

There are ( 10 2 ) = 45 \binom {10} 2 = 45 ways to choose two cards, with equal probability.

There are ( 5 2 ) = 10 \binom 5 2 = 10 ways in which they are both even, and ( 5 2 ) = 10 \binom 5 2 = 10 ways in which they are both odd; in total, this gives 10 + 10 = 20 10 + 10 = 20 ways in which the sum is even.

On the other hand, there are ( 5 1 ) ( 5 1 ) = 5 5 = 25 \binom 5 1 \cdot \binom 5 1 = 5 \cdot 5 = 25 ways to choose one odd and one even card, with an odd sum.

Since 25 > 20 25 > 20 , the probability of an odd sum is greater.

You can stop after the first line. If there are 45 ways to choose a pair of two cards, and each of the 45 pairs is either an odd sum or an even sum, then there cannot be an equal number of pairs with odd sums and pairs with even sums.

Aaron Feigelson - 3 years, 4 months ago

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You are right. But why not finish the problem by checking which probability is greater?

Arjen Vreugdenhil - 3 years, 4 months ago

C(10,2) = 45 sums. Period!!! There´s no way of even probability to odd/even sum. (Sorry, Aaron, I didn´t see your comment)

PAULO BOUHID - 3 years, 4 months ago
Laszlo Kocsis
Jan 22, 2018

When you can pick a card twice, there are equal cases of odd and even sums (because of symmetry). To get the set of the valid cases we should remove all the same card cases from this set. The removed cases have even sum, so there are more odd cases remaining.

Can you elaborate on what the symmetry is?

For example, when there are 3 cards, even if we allow to pick a card twice, there cannot be equal cases of odd and even sums (since there are an odd number of cases).

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Fair enough. (And by 3, you must have meant 3 consecutive cards, right? ;) )

The symmetry I see probably originates from there being the same number of odd and even cards in the original problem. But this method (removing the n number of cases with identical picks from the set - where n is the number of cards) still works in case there are odd number of consecutive cards, as there are only one more cases with even than with odd sum.

Draw an n-size chessboard and remove a diagonal for visualisation.

(And now I'm retreating for creating a general problem with m odd and n even cards... Blame you!)

Laszlo Kocsis - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Right. With consecutive integers, a nice way of seeing the symmetry is coloring even with black and odd with white. Then, we get a checkerboard coloring, and hence when there are an even number of integers, there are equal cases of even and odd sums.

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 4 months ago
Timothy Samson
Jan 21, 2018

Even + Even = Even

Odd + Odd = Even

Even + Odd = Odd

Odd + Even = Odd

It is more likely to get an even and an odd card than it is to get cards with the same parity (even and even, or odd and odd). Therefore, it is more likely to get an odd sum.

If you toss out an even card, there are more odd cards in the pile, so it is more likely to get another odd card, which means it is more likely to get an odd sum

For a pack of 6 6 cards, the probability to get cards with different parities is 3 / 5 3/5 (After you choose a card, 3 of the 5 cards will be of a different parity to the card you chose). The probability to get cards with same parities is 2 / 5 2/5 because you already chose a card of the same parity, therefore it is less likely to get another one.

Zain Majumder
Jan 21, 2018

As the problem states, the probability of getting an even or odd card are equal at first. However, when choosing the second card, the first card is not available, so a card of the opposite parity is more likely to get chosen the second time.

If both cards have the same parity (less likely), the sum will be even. If they have different parity (more likely), the sum will be odd. Therefore an odd sum is more likely than an even sum, and the answer is no \boxed{\text{no}} .

Ahsim Nreiziev
Jan 23, 2018

To get an even sum, the two cards must have the same... let's call it "parity". By this word I mean that the cards must either both be even or both be odd. Now, there are 5 cards of each parity. However, for each card from A-10, if you want to seek a "mate" with the same parity.... well, a card can't mate with itself, and since any card has the same parity has itself, you suddenly only have 4 cards with the same parity to choose from! So that's 10 x 4 = 40 pairs with the same parity, and thus 40 possible pairs with even sum.

On the other hand, to get an odd sum the cards the cards must have opposite parity instead. For each of the 10 values, the number of prospective partners with opposite parity is 5, since -- by virtue of no card having an opposite parity of itself -- it can choose from all the cards with that parity in the original set, which is half of 10, which is 5. So there are 5x10 = 50 pairs with opposite parity, and that in turn gives us 50 possible pairs with an odd sum.

In conclusion: there is only a chance of 40/90 or 4/9 to get a pair with an even sum , while there is a 50/90 or 5/9 probability of getting two cards with an odd sum . Thus, since the chance of getting an odd sum are higher, the answer is a resounding "no".

Jamian Murray
Jan 23, 2018

Let's call the Even Numbers E, and the Odd Numbers O. If we're summing 2 of these cards, the 3 cases that can happen are as follows:

1 2 SUM
E O O
O O E
E E E

Because we have the same number of odds and evens, looking at our outcomes above, we can see that the probability is not equal, but favors the Equal Sum.

Max Patrick
Jan 22, 2018

There are 45 ways of drawing two cards randomly. Because 45 is an odd number, there cannot possibly be equal probablities of even and odd sum.

So, assuming that there are 20 cards, instead of ten, then there will be a total of 190 ways to draw the 2 cards randomly. Because 190 is an even number, are you saying that there's an equal probability of an even and odd sum?

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Pi Han Goh, Would you be able to explain further thanks a lot

Duc Tranhuy - 3 years, 4 months ago

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Max said if there's 10 cards to choose from, then there's an odd number (45) of combinations, which implies that the probability is not equal.

But if there's 20 cards to choose from, then there's an even number (190) of combinations, which implies that the probability can be equal?

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 4 months ago
Isaac Rodriguez
Jan 22, 2018

If we pick 2 cards, we have 3 possibilities:
1) 2 odd numbers, the sum of 2 odd numbers is another odd.
2) 2 even numbers, the sum of 2 even numbers is a odd number.
3) 1 odd and 1 even, where the sum is a even number
So we will have 2/3 of possibilities of take a odd number from the sum of the 2 cards.



You're almost right. Are the probabilities in cases (1), (2) and (3) the same? That is, the probability of selecting (2 odd numbers), (2 even numbers), or (1 odd and 1 even) the same?

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 4 months ago
Sachin Kumar
Jan 22, 2018

If we add two even or two odd numbers in both case the sum is even.And if we add an odd and an even number the sum is an odd number hence the probability of even and odd sum is 2/3 and 1/3 respectively

You're almost right. Are the probabilities in cases (1), (2) and (3) the same? That is, the probability of selecting (2 odd numbers), (2 even numbers), or (1 odd and 1 even) the same?

Pi Han Goh - 3 years, 4 months ago

Its simple when you know the following rules:

1) Odd + Odd = Even.

2) Even + Even = Even.

3) Odd + Even = Odd.

Piero Sarti
Jan 22, 2018

The sum of two positive integers is either even or odd.

Since ( 10 2 ) = 45 \begin{pmatrix} 10 \\ 2 \end{pmatrix} = 45 and 45 0 ( m o d 2 ) 45 \neq 0\pmod{2} there are not the same number of even sums as there are odd sums.

Sibasish Panda
Jan 22, 2018

Probability of picking up a even number 1st is 1/5 and then another even number is 1/4, but if in second case we draw an odd number probability is 1/5.Hence the probability differs.

Kj Ffh
Jan 27, 2018

So if we get 2 even numbers then the sum will be an even number if we get 2 odd numbers then the sum will be an even number but if we get 1 odd and 1 even then the sum will be an odd number hence there is a higher chance of the sum to be an even number than an odd number

Ben Speakman
Jan 26, 2018

On the first draw, it's 50/50 chance of getting an odd number vs an even number. On the 2nd draw (without replacement), will be more likely to be odd if your first draw was as even, and vice versa. An odd plus and even, an even plus an odd. Those are the most likely outcomes.

Timothy Jit Huong
Jan 26, 2018

Odd number + odd number = even number. Even number + even number = even number. Odd number + even number = odd number. Hence the probability of getting an odd number is 1/3 while the probability of getting an even number is 2/3. Hence, they are not equal.

Richard Desper
Jan 24, 2018

If I first draw an even card, there is a 5/9 probability that the second card is odd, yielding an odd sum. If I first draw an odd card, there is a 5/9 probability that the second card is even, yielding an odd sum. Thus the probability of an odd sum is 5/9.

Luke Fournier
Jan 24, 2018

The sum of two evens is always even, the sum of two odds is always odd, the sum of an even and an odd is always odd, similar to multiplying positives and negatives.

If you choose an even number on the first go, there will be less evens for you to choose on the second go, and vis versa with odds, therefore you are more likely to choose two numbers with different parity, meaning the sum of the two numbers is more likely to be odd.

Robert DeLisle
Jan 24, 2018

There are 100 possible outcomes of picking two numbers between 1-10 (with replacement).

50 have an odd sum, 50 have an even sum.

However, without replacement 10 outcomes, the diagonal of (n,n) combinations, all even sums, become impossible outcomes.

This reduces the sample space to 90 outcomes, 50 odd, 40 even.

The probability of odd outcome is then 5/9 against 4/9 for even.

Qi Huan Tan
Jan 23, 2018

The result follows from that ( 10 2 ) = 45 {10\choose2} =45 is odd.

Mark Gleeson
Jan 23, 2018

Without making a complicated formula, randomly choosing two distinct cards eliminates the possibility of doubles to make some even number sums ( can’t choose 5 twice to make 10) so this means there are more odd number combinations.

Ananya Aaniya
Jan 23, 2018

For odd sum one card to be odd chosen from the 5 available. And the other card to be even chosen out of 5 available even cards... = 5c1 * 5c1 = 25; Probability = 25/ (10c2) =25/45 = 5/9

For even sum, either two cards to be chosen from 5 available odd cards = 5c2 = 10. Or they are to be chosen from even cards.. 10+10=20; Probability = 20/45 =4/9

*Note that these are mutually exclusive events... thus their probabilities add up to 1.

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