Pairwise Independence \neq Mutual Independence

Let X X and Y Y be random variables describing independent tosses of a fair coin. Let Z Z be the random variable that equals 1 1 if both X X and Y Y land heads and that equals 0 otherwise.

How many of the following statements are true?

  • The collection of random variables { X , Y } \{X, Y\} is independent.
  • The collection of random variables { X , Z } \{X, Z\} is independent.
  • The collection of random variables { Y , Z } \{Y, Z\} is independent.
  • The collection of random variables { X , Y , Z } \{X, Y, Z\} is independent.
2 4 3 1

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1 solution

Eli Ross Staff
Jun 27, 2016

Consider the events X = tails X=\text{tails} and Z = 1 Z=1 . Then, P ( X = tails Z = 1 ) = 0 , P(X=\text{tails} \cap Z=1)=0, since Z Z cannot be 1 if X X is tails. On the other hand, P ( X = tails ) = 1 / 2 P(X=\text{tails})=1/2 and P ( Z = 1 ) = 1 / 4 P(Z=1)=1/4 . A simple computation shows that P ( X = tails Z = 1 ) = 0 P ( X = tails ) P ( Z = 1 ) P(X=\text{tails} \cap Z=1)=0\neq P(X=\text{tails})\cdot P(Z=1) , so these two events are not independent. It follows then that X X and Z Z are not independent, and a similar argument shows that Y Y and Z Z are not independent either. Thus, the last three statements are all false.

On the other hand, it is given in the problem statement that X X and Y Y are independent, so the first statement is true. The answer then, is 1.

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