Population Growth

Calculus Level 2
Year Population Growth rate
1999 20000 20r
2004 25000 25r
2009 ?

The population of a village increases continuously at a rate proportional that is proportional to the number of its inhabitants present at any time. If the population of the village was 20,000 in the year 1999 and 25,000 in the year 2004, what will be the population of the village in 2009?

(Birth rate, death rate, immigration, emigration, etc are all included in the population growth rate.)


The answer is 31250.

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1 solution

Let the population at any instant t t be y y . According to the question,
d y d t y \dfrac{dy}{dt} \propto y .
d y d t = k y \Rightarrow \dfrac{dy}{dt} = k y , [ where k k is the proportionality constant. ]
d y y = k d t \Rightarrow \dfrac{dy}y = k \, dt .


Integrating both sides, we get
ln y = k t + c \ln y = kt + c , [ where c c is a constant to be determined ]

In the year 1999, t = 0 t = 0 and y = 20000 y =20000 ,
therefore, ln ( 20000 ) = 0 + c \ln(20000) = 0 + c .

In the year 2004, t = 5 t = 5 and y = 25000 y =25000 ,
therefore, we get ln ( 25000 ) = 5 k + c \ln(25000) = 5k + c ln ( 25000 ) = 5 k + ln ( 20000 ) \Rightarrow \ln(25000) = 5k + \ln(20000)
k = 1 5 ln ( 5 4 ) \Rightarrow k = \dfrac15 \ln \left( \dfrac54 \right) .

Now, in the year 2009, t = 10 t=10 years.
ln y = 10 1 5 ln ( 5 4 ) + ln ( 20000 ) \ln y = 10 \cdot \dfrac15 \ln \left( \dfrac54 \right) + \ln(20000)
ln y = ln ( 20000 5 4 5 4 ) \Rightarrow \ln y = \ln \left(20000\cdot \dfrac54 \cdot \dfrac54\right) .
y = 20000 5 4 5 4 \Rightarrow y = 20000 \cdot \dfrac54 \cdot \dfrac54 .
y = 31250 \Rightarrow y = 31250 .

Hence, the population of the village in 2009 will be 31250 \boxed{31250} .

Since the years are equally spaced, we can show that the answer is 25000 × 25000 20000 25000 \times \frac{25000}{20000} .

Calvin Lin Staff - 5 years, 3 months ago

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