Parcels from sender S to receiver R passes. Sequentially through two post offices. Each post-offices has a probability 1/5 of losing an incoming parcel, undependable of all other parcels. Given that parcel is lost, the probability that it was lost by 2nd post office is ???
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1/2 because this is conditiopnal probability. p(a intersection b) = 1/5 and p(b)=2/5