Premier League Predictions

For the start of the Premier League , Stephen is predicting the outcome of the table at the end of the season. It is a league format with 20 teams. For each team, the difference between the predicted and actual positions is added onto the score (meaning that the aim is to get the lowest score possible).

Which of these numbers could be obtained as the final score?

Example:

  • If Wolves were predicted 15th, and actually came 8th, that would add 7 onto the score
  • If Liverpool were predicted 1st, and actually came 1st, that would add 0 onto the score
  • This would be calculated for all of the teams, and the final score would be 7 + 0 + 7 + 0 + ...
175 87 114 202

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1 solution

Patrick Corn
Aug 8, 2018

The final score is n = 1 20 p n n = n = 1 20 ( ± p n n ) , \sum_{n=1}^{20} |p_n-n| = \sum_{n=1}^{20} (\pm p_n \mp n), where p n p_n is the prediction for the team that eventually finishes in n n th place. This is a signed sum with two copies of every integer from 1 1 to 20 , 20, with 20 20 pluses and 20 20 minuses.

The maximum possible value of this signed sum comes when we put the pluses on the largest numbers: 20 + 20 + 19 + 19 + + 11 + 11 10 10 9 9 1 1 = 200. 20+20+19+19+\cdots+11+11 -10-10-9-9-\cdots-1-1 = 200.

The other important point is that this signed sum is always even, because p n n p n n ( m o d 2 ) , |p_n - n| \equiv p_n-n \pmod 2, so n = 1 20 p n n n = 1 20 ( p n n ) = n = 1 20 p n n = 1 20 n = 0 , \sum_{n=1}^{20} |p_n-n| \equiv \sum_{n=1}^{20} (p_n-n) = \sum_{n=1}^{20} p_n - \sum_{n=1}^{20} n = 0, since the p n p_n are a permutation of 1 , , 20. 1, \ldots, 20.

So the final score must be an even number 200 , \le 200, and 114 \fbox{114} is the only possible choice. To be complete, I should also show that 114 114 is possible. Here's a sequence p n p_n that should do the trick: 20 , 19 , 18 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 4 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 3 , 2 , 1. 20,19,18,5,6,7,8,9,10,4,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,3,2,1. This gives a final score of 19 + 17 + 15 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 6 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 15 + 17 + 19 = 114. 19+17+15+1+1+1+1+1+1+6+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+15+17+19 = 114.

(Remark: I believe that every even number between 0 0 and 200 200 inclusive is a possible final score, but I don't have a short proof.)

Yes, I believe every even number is possible. An intuitive way to show that it is always even is to take one of the tables and then perform a series of swaps involving adjacent teams, to transform it into the other table. Each swap changes it by -2,0 or 2

Stephen Mellor - 2 years, 10 months ago

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Right, that's one way to go about proving it, but I'd like to see it written out--I'm worried about edge cases (e.g. you can't always increase or decrease a specific p n p_n by 1 , 1, if it already equals 1 1 or 20 20 ).

Actually, it might be easier to give instructions for how to construct a given final score in the same way that I wrote down the one for 114 114 --you start by flipping the edges ( 20 20 and 1 , 1, 19 19 and 2 , 2, etc.) until the remaining score gets low enough, and then you do the cycle I did in the middle with 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 4. 5,6,7,8,9,10,4. I think it's not too tough to write down a proof that that kind of thing always works.

Patrick Corn - 2 years, 10 months ago

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