Probabilitical Players

Sixteen players S 1 , S 2 , . . . , S 16 S_{1}, S_{2}, ..., S_{16} play in a tournament. They are divided into eight pairs at random. From each pair a winner is decided on the basis of a game played between the two players of the pair. Assume that all the players are of equal strength.

Find the probability that exactly one of the two players S 1 S_{1} and S 2 S_{2} is among the eight winners .

The probability is in the form a b \frac{a}{b} . Find a + b .

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The answer is 23.

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2 solutions

Since S 1 S_{1} has an equal chance of being paired with any of the other 15 15 players, there is a probability of 1 15 \frac{1}{15} that S 1 S_{1} and S 2 S_{2} will be paired together and a probability of 14 15 \frac{14}{15} that they will be in different pairings.

If they are paired together then it is certain that exactly one of them will be among the eight winners.

If they are not paired together, then there is a probability of 1 2 \frac{1}{2} that exactly one of them will win their pairing.

Thus the desired probability is ( 1 15 ) ( 1 ) + ( 14 15 ) ( 1 2 ) = 8 15 (\frac{1}{15})(1) + (\frac{14}{15})(\frac{1}{2}) = \frac{8}{15} ,

and so a + b = 8 + 15 = 23 a + b = 8 + 15 = \boxed{23} .

Seriously overrated question, don't you think so too sir?

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 3 months ago

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It's probably a high level 3 question, so it's not that far off what it should be. It hasn't been posted for that long so the points level still has some settling to do.

Brian Charlesworth - 6 years, 3 months ago

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Yes,agreed ,when I had solved it it was unrated ,sir

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 3 months ago
Bhargav Upadhyay
Mar 3, 2015

C a n t h i n k o f t w o c a s e s ( 1 ) S 1 a n d S 2 a r e i n p a i r a n d ( 2 ) i t s c o m p l e m e n t P ( S 1 a n d S 2 a r e i n p a i r ) = 1 15 P ( S 1 a n d S 2 a r e n o t i n p a i r ) = 14 15 P ( E x a c t o n e f r o m S 1 a n d S 2 i n f i n a l 8 ) = P ( S 1 a n d S 2 a r e i n p a i r ) P ( E x a c t 1 w i n n e r f r o m S 1 a n d S 2 ) + P ( S 1 a n d S 2 a r e n o t i n p a i r ) P ( E x a c t 1 w i n n e r f r o m S 1 a n d S 2 ) = 1 15 × 1 + 14 15 ( 1 1 4 1 4 ) = 1 15 + 7 15 = 8 15 . 8 + 15 = 23 Can\quad think\quad of\quad two\quad cases\\ (1)\quad S1\quad and\quad S2\quad are\quad in\quad pair\quad and\quad (2)\quad it's\quad complement\\ P(S1\quad and\quad S2\quad are\quad in\quad pair)\quad =\quad \frac { 1 }{ 15 } \\ P(S1\quad and\quad S2\quad are\quad not\quad in\quad pair)\quad =\quad \frac { 14 }{ 15 } \\ P(Exact\quad one\quad from\quad S1\quad and\quad S2\quad in\quad final\quad 8)\\ =\quad P(S1\quad and\quad S2\quad are\quad in\quad pair)\quad P(Exact\quad 1\quad winner\quad from\quad S1\quad and\quad S2)\quad +\quad P(S1\quad and\quad S2\quad are\quad not\quad in\quad pair)\quad P(Exact\quad 1\quad winner\quad from\quad S1\quad and\quad S2)\\ =\quad \frac { 1 }{ 15 } \times 1+\frac { 14 }{ 15 } (1-\frac { 1 }{ 4 } -\frac { 1 }{ 4 } )\quad =\quad \frac { 1 }{ 15 } +\frac { 7 }{ 15 } =\frac { 8 }{ 15 } .\\ 8+15\quad =\quad 23

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