Classic Probability

A bag contains a number of coins, one of which is a two-headed coin and the rest are fair coins. A coin is selected at random and tossed. If the probability that the toss results in a head is 7 12 \frac {7}{12} , then how many fair coins are in the bag ?

Details and Assumptions:
A two-headed coin is a coin which has head on both sides; a fair coin means it has tail on one side and head on the other.


The answer is 5.

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2 solutions

There are n n fair coins in the bag along with the one two-headed coin, so the probability of choosing a fair coin is n n + 1 \frac{n}{n+1} and the probability of choosing the two-sided coin is 1 n + 1 \frac{1}{n+1} .

If a fair coin is chosen then the probability that the toss results in a head is 1 2 \frac{1}{2} , and if the two-sided coin is chosen then the probability that the toss results in a head is 1 1 . So given that the probability that the toss of a randomly chosen coin results in a head is 7 12 \frac{7}{12} , we have that

( n n + 1 ) ( 1 2 ) + ( 1 n + 1 ) 1 = 7 12 (\frac{n}{n+1})*(\frac{1}{2}) + (\frac{1}{n+1})*1 = \frac{7}{12}

n + 2 2 ( n + 1 ) = 7 12 \Longrightarrow \dfrac{n + 2}{2(n + 1)} = \dfrac{7}{12}

12 n + 24 = 14 n + 14 10 = 2 n n = 5 \Longrightarrow 12n + 24 = 14n + 14 \Longrightarrow 10 = 2n \Longrightarrow n = \boxed{5} .

Navneeth Nivu
Oct 1, 2017

Mine is pure intuition and I guessed it correctly. The P(head) is 7/12, then the P(tail) is 5/12. So there must be 5 fair coins in order for 5 tail to occur.

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