probability

There are 6 bags, each with 5 balls. Each bag has a different number of white balls (from 0 to 5). One bag is randomly chosen, and 2 balls are randomly drawn from it. Given that both balls are white, the probability that all the balls in the bag are white is a b \frac{a}{b} with a and b relatively prime , then find the value of a × b a \times b .


The answer is 2.

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3 solutions

Sandeep Bhardwaj
Aug 23, 2014

If P(A)=probability of getting the bag chosen for drawing balls when all the 5 balls in the bag are white.

P(B)=probability of getting the bag chosen for drawing balls when only 4 balls in the bag are white

P(C)=probability of getting the bag chosen for drawing balls when only 3 balls in the bag are white

P(D)=probability of getting the bag chosen for drawing balls when only 2 balls in the bag are white

P(E)=probability of getting two white balls drawn from the bag

P(E/A)=probability of two white balls drawn when the bag is chosen which has all white balls in it

P(E/B)=probability of two white balls drawn when the bag is chosen which has only 4 white balls in it

P(E/C)=probability of two white balls drawn when the bag is chosen which has only 3 white balls in it

P(E/D)=probability of two white balls drawn when the bag is chosen which has only 2 white balls in it.

So using baye's theorem

required probability = P ( A ) . P ( E / A ) P ( A ) . P ( E / A ) + P ( B ) . P ( E / B ) + P ( C ) . P ( E / C ) + P ( D ) . P ( E / D ) = \frac{P(A).P(E/A)} {P(A).P(E/A)+P(B).P(E/B)+P(C).P(E/C)+P(D).P(E/D)}

= 1 4 . 1 1 4 . 1 + 1 4 . 6 10 + 1 4 3 10 + 1 4 1 10 = \frac{\frac{1}{4}.1}{\frac{1}{4}.1+\frac{1}{4}.\frac{6}{10}+ \frac{1}{4}\frac{3}{10}+\frac{1}{4}\frac{1}{10}} = 1 2 =\boxed{\frac{1}{2}}

i think that there is an error. when there are 4 white ball and 1 other colour ball the cases are just two WC AND WW. where C is the other ball . if the cases has to be 6 or 4C2. it must then mean that the white balls each are unique or the draws are somehow ordered. i think the problem should mention that. feel free to correct me if i am wrong.

Antara Chatterjee - 3 years ago

TWO BALLS ARE DEFINITELY WHITE. OUT OF THE REMAINING THREE THERE ARE THESE POSSIBILITIES

RWW

WRW

WWR

RRW

RWR

WRR

RRR

WWW

EIGHT POSSIBILITIES AND ONE POSSIBILITY(WWW) WANTED, THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY THAT ALL FIVE BALLS ARE WHITE IS 1/8.

AND OF COURSE THE COLOUR OF NON WHITE BALLS MATTER, OR ELSE THERE WILL BE INFINITE POSSIBILITIES BECAUSE OF INFINITE COLOURS.

Varun Agrawal - 6 years, 8 months ago

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Well, the probability of drawing two white balls are different in each case

Trevor Arashiro - 6 years, 8 months ago

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Yeah right. And 1/8 is true only if you consider probability of two white balls drawn equal in each case, and that's not true.

Sandeep Bhardwaj - 6 years, 8 months ago

This is a question about prior-posterior distribution. It was badly phrased because it did not clarify exactly what the prior distribution was. @Sandeep Bhardwaj took a uniform distribution over all possible outcomes given the data, while @Varun Agrawal took a probability distribution with the assumption that the balls are white or not-white, with equal probability.

In the latter case, we will arrive at the answer of 1/8. Those who answered 8 have been marked correct. I have updated the question to indicate a uniform distribution over all possible scenarios (0-5 balls).

Sandeep, can you update your solution accordingly? Thanks.

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 8 months ago
Bill Bell
Dec 29, 2015

Confusing even with the crutch of computer code!

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from fractions import Fraction

bags=[{'B':k,'W':5-k} for k in range(6)]

total=Fraction(0)
probs=[]
for bag in bags:
    prob=1
    for selection in range(2):
        if bag['W']<=0:
            prob=Fraction(0)
            break
        prob*=Fraction(bag['W'],sum(bag.values()))
        bag['W']+=-1
    prob=Fraction(1,5)*prob
    total+=prob
    probs.append(prob)

print probs[0]/sum(probs)

Trevor Arashiro
Oct 5, 2014

IM NOT SURE IF THIS IS EVEN A VALID SOLUTION. I think I got it just by pure luck. Ok, we start by taking probabilities of choosing two white balls if the bag contains :5 white balls, 4 white balls, 3 white balls, or two white balls:

10 / 10 , 6 / 10 , 3 / 10 , 1 / 10 10/10,6/10,3/10,1/10 respectively

Now, taking the average probability, we find it to be 1 / 2 1/2

Therefore, (1/2 change picking two whites)*(10/10 chance of picking a white ball if all are white)=5/10 chance of having all whites.

Again, I'm pretty sure that Sandeep's solution is correct but I'm not sure about mine.

Can someone please validate this.

Trevor Arashiro - 6 years, 8 months ago

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taking average is not something logical, it's just a coincidence. ^_^

Sandeep Bhardwaj - 6 years, 8 months ago

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It does make some sense if you think about it. It's the exact same equation as yours if you take out all the 1/4's. There has to be some mathematical proof saying why it SHOULDN'T turn out the same but it does.

Trevor Arashiro - 6 years, 8 months ago

This works because of the (previously unstated) assumption that the prior distribution is uniform. Otherwise, you need to weight it by the prior distribution probabilities.

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 8 months ago

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Thank you. At least now I know that it wasn't just "luck" XD

Trevor Arashiro - 6 years, 8 months ago

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