A random card falls out of a standard deck of 52 cards. If you select a card from the remaining 51 cards randomly, what is the probability that it is a "7"?
Note: There are four "7"s in a standard deck.
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Basically, it doesn't matter that one of the cards is randomly on the floor when you draw yours. Even if 5 2 5 1 of the cards randomly fell to the floor, your chance of drawing/taking that last card and having it be a 7 would still be 5 2 4 -- 4 7's out of 52 cards.
If you're still not convinced, work it out with conditional probability. Since the card that falls out of the deck is random, there's a 5 2 4 chance that the card that falls loose is a 7. If it was a 7, then you now have only a 5 1 3 chance of drawing a 7 -- so there's a 5 1 × 5 2 3 × 4 chance that you draw a 7 this way. But 5 2 4 8 of the time, it wasn't a 7 that fell out, and that means you now have a 5 1 4 chance of drawing a 7 -- so there's a 5 2 × 5 1 4 8 × 4 chance that you draw a 7 this way.
5 2 × 5 1 3 × 4 + 5 2 × 5 1 4 8 × 4 = 5 2 × 5 1 ( 3 + 4 8 ) × 4 = 5 2 × 5 1 5 1 × 4 = 5 2 4