A fair coin is flipped
4
times by Ann and
3
times by Boris.
If the probability that Ann and Boris flip the same number of heads is
B
C
A
where A , B , C are positive integers, with A and B being coprime.
Find A × B × C .
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Great solution. A good argument indeed!
If A = the number of heads Ann tosses and B = the number of heads Boris tosses, then A and B follow independent binomial distributions. Therefore,
P(A = k and B = k) = P(A=k) * P(B=k) = ((4 choose k) (1/2)^4) * ((3 choose k) (1/2)^3)
Substituting values of k = 0, 1, 2, and 3 and summing shows the required probability to be 35/(2^7). Therefore, ABC = 35*(2) * 7 = 490
Out of 2 4 moves of Ann, 1 contain 4 heads, 4 heads are found in 0 of Boris's 2 3 moves.
Out of 2 4 moves of Ann, 4 contain 3 heads, 3 heads are found in 1 of Boris's 2 3 moves.
Out of 2 4 moves of Ann, 6 contain 2 heads, 2 heads are found in 3 of Boris's 2 3 moves.
Out of 2 4 moves of Ann, 4 contain 1 head, 1 head is found in 3 of Boris's 2 3 moves.
Out of 2 4 moves of Ann, 1 contain 0 heads 0 heads are found in 1 of Boris's 2 3 moves.
Total Probability = 1 6 1 ∗ 8 0 + 1 6 4 ∗ 8 1 + 1 6 6 ∗ 8 3 + 1 6 4 ∗ 8 3 + 1 6 1 ∗ 8 1 → 2 7 3 5
3 5 ∗ 2 ∗ 7 = 4 9 0
Note that the number of heads is Ann's four dice vary as 1 , 4 , 6 , 4 , 1 and Boris's vary 1 , 3 , 3 , 1 , which are steps of Pascal's triangle.
typo in the last term - it is not (4/16) * (1/8)
Probability of all possible outcomes for Ann’s three flips.
1 Possible 0 heads outcome is 3 tails flipped P ( 0 h ) = 2 3 1 = 8 1
3 Possible 1 heads outcomes are tails occurring at any 1 of the 3 flips
P
(
1
h
)
=
8
1
+
8
1
+
8
1
=
8
3
2 heads in three flips means 1 tail
3 Possible 2 heads outcomes
P
(
2
h
)
=
P
(
1
t
)
=
P
(
1
h
)
=
8
3
since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal
3 heads in three flips means 0 tails
1 Possible 0 heads outcomes
P
(
3
h
)
=
P
(
0
t
)
=
P
(
0
h
)
=
8
1
since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal
Probability of all possible outcomes for Boris’s four flips.
1 Possible 0 heads outcome is 4 tails flipped
P
(
0
h
)
=
2
4
1
=
1
6
1
4 Possible 1 heads outcomes are tails occurring at any 1 of the 4 flips
P
(
1
h
)
=
4
2
4
1
=
1
6
4
6 Possible 2 heads outcomes =3! = 6 (2 heads occurring at any combination of 2 of the four flips)
P
(
2
h
)
=
6
2
4
1
=
1
6
6
4 Possible 3 heads outcomes
P
(
3
h
)
=
P
(
2
t
)
=
P
(
2
h
)
=
1
6
4
since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal
There are four possible outcomes where Ann and Boris could possibly match. 4 heads is not possible for Ann.
Probability that they both have 0 heads P ( 0 h ) = 8 1 ∗ 1 6 1 = 1 2 8 1
Probability that they both have 1 heads P ( 1 h ) = 8 3 ∗ 1 6 4 = 1 2 8 1 2
Probability that they both have 2 heads P ( 2 h ) = 8 3 ∗ 1 6 6 = 1 2 8 1 8
Probability that they both have 3 heads P ( 3 h ) = 8 1 ∗ 1 6 4 = 1 2 8 4
The sum of all possible matching outcomes 1 2 8 3 5 = 2 7 3 5
3 5 × 2 × 7 = 4 9 0
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∴ A × B × C P r ( Ann’s heads = Boris heads ) = P r ( Ann’s tails = Boris’ heads ) since it is a fair coin, both Probability equals = P r ( 4 - Ann’s heads = Boris’ heads ) = P r ( Ann’s heads + Boris’ heads = 4 ) that is total 4 heads in 7 flips = ( 4 7 ) ⋅ ( 2 1 ) 7 = 2 7 3 5 = 3 5 × 2 × 7 = 4 9 0