Probability - good argument can help

A fair coin is flipped 4 4 times by Ann and 3 3 times by Boris.
If the probability that Ann and Boris flip the same number of heads is A B C \cfrac{A}{B^C}

where A A , B B , C C are positive integers, with A A and B B being coprime.

Find A × B × C A \times B \times C .


The answer is 490.

This section requires Javascript.
You are seeing this because something didn't load right. We suggest you, (a) try refreshing the page, (b) enabling javascript if it is disabled on your browser and, finally, (c) loading the non-javascript version of this page . We're sorry about the hassle.

4 solutions

Pop Wong
Aug 19, 2020

P r ( Ann’s heads = Boris heads ) = P r ( Ann’s tails = Boris’ heads ) since it is a fair coin, both Probability equals = P r ( 4 - Ann’s heads = Boris’ heads ) = P r ( Ann’s heads + Boris’ heads = 4 ) that is total 4 heads in 7 flips = ( 7 4 ) ( 1 2 ) 7 = 35 2 7 A × B × C = 35 × 2 × 7 = 490 \begin{aligned} &Pr( \text{Ann's heads = Boris heads} ) \\ &= Pr( \text{Ann's tails = Boris' heads} ) \hspace{14mm} \text{ since it is a fair coin, both Probability equals } \\ &= Pr( \text{4 - Ann's heads = Boris' heads} ) \\ &= Pr( \text{Ann's heads + Boris' heads} = 4 ) \hspace{5mm} \text{ that is total 4 heads in 7 flips } \\ &= { {7}\choose{4} } \cdot \left( \cfrac{1}{2} \right)^7 \\ &= \cfrac{35}{2^7} \\ \therefore A \times B \times C &= 35 \times 2 \times 7 = \boxed{490} \end{aligned}

Great solution. A good argument indeed!

Chris Lewis - 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Log in to reply

Glad you like it.

Pop Wong - 9 months, 3 weeks ago
Ron Gallagher
Aug 19, 2020

If A = the number of heads Ann tosses and B = the number of heads Boris tosses, then A and B follow independent binomial distributions. Therefore,

P(A = k and B = k) = P(A=k) * P(B=k) = ((4 choose k) (1/2)^4) * ((3 choose k) (1/2)^3)

Substituting values of k = 0, 1, 2, and 3 and summing shows the required probability to be 35/(2^7). Therefore, ABC = 35*(2) * 7 = 490

Out of 2 4 2^4 moves of Ann, 1 1 contain 4 4 heads, 4 4 heads are found in 0 0 of Boris's 2 3 2^3 moves.

Out of 2 4 2^4 moves of Ann, 4 4 contain 3 3 heads, 3 3 heads are found in 1 1 of Boris's 2 3 2^3 moves.

Out of 2 4 2^4 moves of Ann, 6 6 contain 2 2 heads, 2 2 heads are found in 3 3 of Boris's 2 3 2^3 moves.

Out of 2 4 2^4 moves of Ann, 4 4 contain 1 1 head, 1 1 head is found in 3 3 of Boris's 2 3 2^3 moves.

Out of 2 4 2^4 moves of Ann, 1 1 contain 0 0 heads 0 0 heads are found in 1 1 of Boris's 2 3 2^3 moves.

Total Probability = 1 16 0 8 + 4 16 1 8 + 6 16 3 8 + 4 16 3 8 + 1 16 1 8 35 2 7 \frac{1}{16} * \frac{0}{8} + \frac{4}{16} * \frac{1}{8} + \frac{6}{16} * \frac{3}{8} + \frac{4}{16} * \frac{3}{8} + \frac{1}{16} * \frac{1}{8} \rightarrow \frac{35}{2^7}

35 2 7 = 490 35*2*7= \boxed{490}


Note that the number of heads is Ann's four dice vary as 1 , 4 , 6 , 4 , 1 {1, 4, 6, 4, 1} and Boris's vary 1 , 3 , 3 , 1 {1, 3, 3, 1} , which are steps of Pascal's triangle.

typo in the last term - it is not (4/16) * (1/8)

Pop Wong - 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Log in to reply

Yeah, let me correct

A Former Brilliant Member - 9 months, 3 weeks ago
Darryl Dennis
Sep 28, 2020

Probability of all possible outcomes for Ann’s three flips.

1 Possible 0 heads outcome is 3 tails flipped P ( 0 h ) = 1 2 3 = 1 8 P(0h)=\frac { 1 }{ { 2 }^{ 3 } } =\frac { 1 }{ 8 }

3 Possible 1 heads outcomes are tails occurring at any 1 of the 3 flips
P ( 1 h ) = 1 8 + 1 8 + 1 8 = 3 8 P(1h)=\frac { 1 }{ 8 } +\frac { 1 }{ 8 } +\frac { 1 }{ 8 } =\frac { 3 }{ 8 }

2 heads in three flips means 1 tail

3 Possible 2 heads outcomes
P ( 2 h ) = P ( 1 t ) = P ( 1 h ) = 3 8 P(2h)=P(1t)=P(1h)=\frac { 3 }{ 8 } since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal

3 heads in three flips means 0 tails
1 Possible 0 heads outcomes
P ( 3 h ) = P ( 0 t ) = P ( 0 h ) = 1 8 P(3h)=P(0t)=P(0h)=\frac { 1 }{ 8 } since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal

Probability of all possible outcomes for Boris’s four flips.

1 Possible 0 heads outcome is 4 tails flipped
P ( 0 h ) = 1 2 4 = 1 16 P(0h)=\frac { 1 }{ { 2 }^{ 4 } } =\frac { 1 }{ 16 }

4 Possible 1 heads outcomes are tails occurring at any 1 of the 4 flips
P ( 1 h ) = 4 1 2 4 = 4 16 P(1h)=4\frac { 1 }{ { 2 }^{ 4 } } =\frac { 4 }{ 16 }

6 Possible 2 heads outcomes =3! = 6 (2 heads occurring at any combination of 2 of the four flips)
P ( 2 h ) = 6 1 2 4 = 6 16 P(2h)=6\frac { 1 }{ { 2 }^{ 4 } } =\frac { 6 }{ 16 }

4 Possible 3 heads outcomes
P ( 3 h ) = P ( 2 t ) = P ( 2 h ) = 4 16 P(3h)=P(2t)=P(2h)=\frac { 4 }{ 16 } since it is a far coin, both probabilities are equal

There are four possible outcomes where Ann and Boris could possibly match. 4 heads is not possible for Ann.

Probability that they both have 0 heads P ( 0 h ) = 1 8 1 16 = 1 128 P(0h)=\frac { 1 }{ 8 } *\frac { 1 }{ 16 } =\frac {1}{ 128 }

Probability that they both have 1 heads P ( 1 h ) = 3 8 4 16 = 12 128 P(1h)=\frac { 3 }{ 8 } *\frac { 4 }{ 16 } =\frac { 12 }{ 128 }

Probability that they both have 2 heads P ( 2 h ) = 3 8 6 16 = 18 128 P(2h)=\frac { 3 }{ 8 } *\frac { 6 }{ 16 } =\frac { 18 }{ 128 }

Probability that they both have 3 heads P ( 3 h ) = 1 8 4 16 = 4 128 P(3h)=\frac { 1 }{ 8 } *\frac { 4 }{ 16 } =\frac { 4 }{ 128 }

The sum of all possible matching outcomes 35 128 = 35 2 7 \frac { 35 }{ 128 } =\frac { 35 }{ { 2 }^{ 7 } }

35 × 2 × 7 = 490 35\times 2\times 7=490

0 pending reports

×

Problem Loading...

Note Loading...

Set Loading...