probability in game

A bag contains 'm' white and 'n' black balls. two players A and B alternately draw a ball from the bag, replacing the ball after each draw. A begins the game. If the probability of A winning (that is drawing a white ball) is twice the probability of B winning (that is drawing a black ball), find the ratio m/n.


The answer is 1.

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1 solution

Prakhar Gupta
Nov 12, 2014

We know that either A or B can win .

Therefore P ( A ) + P ( B ) = 1 P(A)+P(B)=1

But it is given that P ( A ) = 2 P ( B ) P(A)=2P(B) Hence 2 P ( B ) + P ( B ) = 1 2P(B)+P(B)=1 P ( B ) = 1 3 \implies P(B)=\dfrac{1}{3} Hence P ( A ) = 2 3 P(A)=\dfrac{2}{3} There are infinite ways in which A can win with different probabilities.

P ( A ) = P(A) = A wins in first trial +A does not win in first trial and B does not win in second trial and A wins in third trial+ \cdots .

This can be represented as P ( A ) = P ( W ) + P ( B W W ) + P ( B W B W W ) + P(A)=P(W)+P(BWW)+P(BWBWW)+\cdots P ( A ) = m m + n + n m + n × m m + n × m m + n + P(A)=\dfrac{m}{m+n}+\dfrac{n}{m+n}\times\dfrac{m}{m+n}\times\dfrac{m}{m+n}+\cdots This we can see that it is an infinite G P GP with

First term , a = m m + n a = \dfrac{m}{m+n}

Common Ratio = r = m n ( m + n ) 2 r = \dfrac{mn}{(m+n)^{2}} Sum of infinite GP is P ( A ) = a 1 r P(A) = \dfrac{a}{1-r} P ( A ) = m m + n 1 m n ( m + n ) 2 P(A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{m}{m+n}}{1-\dfrac{mn}{(m+n)^{2}}} P ( A ) = m n + m 2 m 2 + m n + n 2 \implies P(A) = \dfrac{mn+m^{2}}{m^{2}+mn+n^{2}} But P ( A ) = 2 3 P(A) = \dfrac{2}{3} Therefore 2 3 = m n + m 2 m 2 + m n + n 2 \dfrac{2}{3}=\dfrac{mn+m^{2}}{m^{2}+mn+n^{2}} m = n \implies m=n Hence the required is m n = 1 \boxed{\dfrac{m}{n}=1}

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