Probability of A

An array contains 4 letters, { A , B , C , D A, B, C, D }. A computer randomly picks 50 letters from the array, where the probability of selecting each letter is equal. 17 of these letters are an A A , 9 are B B , 10 are C C and 13 are D D .

Find the probability that the unknown letter is an A A . Write your answer correct to 2 decimal places.


The answer is 0.17.

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1 solution

Odysseas Kal
Apr 13, 2017

If the unknown letter is an A A then there are 50 ! 18 ! 9 ! 10 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{18!*9!*10!*13!} ways of having 18 A 18 A s, 9 B 9 B s, 10 C 10 C s and 13 D 13 D s. However, we could also have 17 A 17 A s, 10 B 10 B s, 10 C 10 C s and 13 D 13 D s or 17 A 17 A s, 9 B 9 B s, 11 C 11 C s and 13 D 13 D s or 17 A 17 A s, 9 B 9 B s, 10 C 10 C s and 14 D 14 D s. As a result, the overall probability of having 18 A 18 A s =

50 ! 18 ! 9 ! 10 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{18!*9!*10!*13!} ÷ \div ( ( 50 ! 18 ! 9 ! 10 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{18!*9!*10!*13!} + 50 ! 17 ! 10 ! 10 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{17!*10!*10!*13!} + 50 ! 17 ! 9 ! 11 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{17!*9!*11!*13!} + 50 ! 17 ! 9 ! 10 ! 14 ! \frac{50!}{17!*9!*10!*14!} ) ) = =

50 ! 18 ! 9 ! 10 ! 13 ! \frac{50!}{18!*9!*10!*13!} ÷ \div 8812 50 ! 18 ! 10 ! 11 ! 14 ! \frac{8812*50!}{18!*10!*11!*14!}

= = 10 11 14 8812 \frac{10*11*14}{8812} = 0.17 = \boxed{0.17} ( 2 2 decimal places ).

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