An array contains 4 letters, { }. A computer randomly picks 50 letters from the array, where the probability of selecting each letter is equal. 17 of these letters are an , 9 are , 10 are and 13 are .
Find the probability that the unknown letter is an . Write your answer correct to 2 decimal places.
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If the unknown letter is an A then there are 1 8 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! ways of having 1 8 A s, 9 B s, 1 0 C s and 1 3 D s. However, we could also have 1 7 A s, 1 0 B s, 1 0 C s and 1 3 D s or 1 7 A s, 9 B s, 1 1 C s and 1 3 D s or 1 7 A s, 9 B s, 1 0 C s and 1 4 D s. As a result, the overall probability of having 1 8 A s =
1 8 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! ÷ ( 1 8 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! + 1 7 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! + 1 7 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 1 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! + 1 7 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 4 ! 5 0 ! ) =
1 8 ! ∗ 9 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 3 ! 5 0 ! ÷ 1 8 ! ∗ 1 0 ! ∗ 1 1 ! ∗ 1 4 ! 8 8 1 2 ∗ 5 0 !
= 8 8 1 2 1 0 ∗ 1 1 ∗ 1 4 = 0 . 1 7 ( 2 decimal places ).