Probability of Both

Algebra Level 3

Robert picks a number N N randomly from the set of positive integers such that the probability that n n is selected is 2 n 2^{-n} for each positive integer n n . He then puts N N identical slips of paper numbered 1 1 through N N into a hat and gives the hat to Charlotte. Charlotte does not know the value of N N , but she draws one of the slips uniformly at random and discovers that it is the number 2 2 . What is the expected value of N given Charlotte’s information?

2 ln 2 1 \frac { 2 }{ \ln { 2 } - 1 } 1 ln 2 2 \frac { 1 }{ \ln { 2 } - 2 } 1 2 ln 2 1 \frac { 1 }{ 2\ln { 2 } - 1 } 2 2 ln 2 1 \frac { 2 }{ 2\ln { 2 } - 1 }

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