Probability Paradox??

Level 2

If you must choose the option below at random as an answer to this question, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25 % 25\text{\%}

B. 50 % 50\text{\%}

C. 60 % 60\text{\%}

D. 25 % 25\text{\%}

Note : Your answer must be in the interval [ 0 , 1 ] [0, 1] .


The answer is 0.

Tunk-Fey Ariawan by Tunk-Fey Ariawan , 35, Indonesia

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3 solutions

Michael Mendrin
Mar 12, 2014

In fact, the answer is undecidable, not 0%.

Imagine that a machine automates the checking process. 50% of the answers will be 25%, while 25% of the answers will be 50%. There is no way the machine can select either as the correct answer without running into a contradiction. Therefore, there cannot be any correct answer, so none of the options would be correct.

But suppose C was "0%" instead of "60%"?

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In my opinion, since we must choose the option and there is no the answer in the options, so whatever we choose will be incorrect. That's why the chance of correct is 0%.

I think if we replace 60% with 0%, the question will be a contradiction or maybe a paradox. There are 4 options but we must choose only 3 answers, then the chance of getting it right will be 1/3 or 33.33%, but 33.33% is not in the options so the possibility of our answer is correct will be 0%. But wait, 0% is in the option so the answer must be C but the possibility of our answer is correct is 0%. Now, it's really confusing me.

Tunk-Fey Ariawan - 7 years, 3 months ago

could u plz...elaborate it???@Michael Mendrin

Joydeep Sarkar - 7 years, 2 months ago

Let me put it into this way.I don't think that the answer will be 0% or any other one and this is surely absurd.Since the question here is that I have to make a guess about -"what could be the correct answer."It depend on question as well.

The question is not mentioned here.

If it is a True/False type question ,then the chances of getting it right will be 50%.If it is a multiple choice question , then the chances of getting it right will surely depends on how many options I have.

You can't just say that there will be 0% chances, since it may happen that I get lucky and the answer that I choose turn out to be the right answer.Then my chances becomes 100%.

Finally I want to ask Mr. Tunk-Fey Ariawan that - Where did you get this question.

Ankit Tripathi - 7 years, 2 months ago
Tunk-Fey Ariawan
Mar 12, 2014

This is NOT a troll question! This is deadly serious. I really wonder, how Brilliant's members will answer this question. Regardless your answer is correct or incorrect, please give your argument about your answer below. This question opens up the possibility of debate or discussion.

1 Helpful 0 Interesting 0 Brilliant 0 Confused
Mayyank Garg
Mar 19, 2014

it say answer is in interval[0,1]...so only possibilities are 0,1(since it doesn't accept decimal values).....so this question can be solved in just 2 try :P

0 Helpful 0 Interesting 0 Brilliant 0 Confused

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