Probability that two people will have the same birthday

In a group of 30 people what is the probability that no two of them have the same birthday. ?


The answer is 0.2936.

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2 solutions

Lâm Lê
Sep 6, 2020

Without counting leap years, the answer is exactly 365 × 364 × 363 × 362 × × 334 36 5 30 0.2936 \frac{365×364×363×362×\ldots×334}{365^{30}}\approx0.2936

Bonus Question: What is the chance that 366 366 people do not share the same birthday?

The answer is: 146097 × 365 × 364 × 363 × 362 × × 3 × 2 × 1 × 40 0 365 × 97 14609 7 367 \color{#FFFFFF}\cancel{\frac{146097×365×364×363×362×\ldots×3×2×1×400^{365}×97}{146097^{367}}}

Srinivasa Gopal
Sep 6, 2020

If 30 people are seated in a room, if we pick one person and say that the probability that the second person in the room will not have the same birthday is 365/365 * 364/365. Similarly the p that the third person will not have the same birthday as the other two is 1 * 364/365 * 363/365. Extending the same reasoning to 30 persons we can see that the P of no two persons having the same birthday is equal to 1 * 364* 363 * 336 / 365^30 = 365 P 30/365^30 = 0.2936

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