Probable chances in life #4

Calculus Level 3

A lot of 100 100 items contains 10 10 defective items. 5 5 items selected at a random from the lot and sent to the retail store. What is the probability that the store will receive at most 1 1 defective item ?


The answer is 0.91584.

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1 solution

Parag Zode
Jan 26, 2015

Let X X be the number of defective items.

P P (an item is defective) = p p = 10 100 = 0.1 \dfrac{10}{100}=0.1 ,and

q = 1 0.1 = 0.9 q=1-0.1=0.9

Since n = 5 n=5

Therefore X B ( 5 , 0.1 ) X\sim{B}(5,0.1)

The probability mass function of X X is given as :-

P ( X = x ) = p ( x ) = 5 C x ( 0.1 ) x . ( 0.9 ) 5 x P(X=x)=p(x)=^{5}{{C}}_{x}(0.1)^{x}.(0.9)^{5-x} where

x = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 x=0,1,2,3,4,5

P P (atmost one defective item is received) = P ( X 1 ) P(X\le{1})

= P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1 ) P(X=0)+P(X=1)

= 5 C 0 ( 0.1 ) 0 . ( 0.9 ) 5 + 5 C 1 ( 0.1 ) 1 . ( 0.9 ) 4 ^{5}{{C}}_{0}(0.1)^{0}.(0.9)^{5}+^{5}{{C}}_{1}(0.1)^{1}.(0.9)^{4}

= 9 5 1 0 5 + 5 ( 9 4 ) 1 0 5 \dfrac{9^{5}}{10^{5}}+\dfrac{5(9^{4})}{10^{5}}

= 91854 1 0 5 \dfrac{91854}{10^{5}}

= 0.91854 \boxed{0.91854}

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