Probably probability! (2)

On March 3rd 2003, I boarded a ship for the first time. I was so excited and started interacting with other people on the ship. The first thing I asked all of them was their birth dates!

If there were fifty people on the ship, what is the probability of finding two people whose birthday falls on the same date??

Details and Assumptions

  • Assume that no one was born on February 29th.

  • Round off the answer!

  • The answer is in decimals out of 1; not in percentages.

2.73E-3 0.97 0.50 2.73E-2

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2 solutions

Jaiveer Shekhawat
Sep 18, 2014

First, find the probability of all 50 persons having different birth dates!!

Thus, we got to consider only 365 days... the probability will be...

365/365 x 364/365 x 363/365......317/365 x 316/365=0.03

(the first person can be born on any date and any month of the year, the second one can choose only 364 dates out of 365 ....)

thus, the probability of 2 persons having same birth date will be:

1 - 0.03

= 0.97 \boxed{0.97}

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem#Approximations

math man - 6 years, 8 months ago

If we allow for someone to be born on Feb 29th (with uniform probability), how much would your answer change by?

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 8 months ago
Stewart Feasby
Oct 15, 2014

There are 365 days in a year, that's 365 possible birthdays(Leap not included). Therefore for two people the probability is: 1 364 365 1-\frac {364}{365} This is because there is one day they could share and 365 days total. Continuing decreasing for 50 people gives: 364 365 × 363 365 × . . . × 317 365 × 316 365 = 364 ! 365 49 × 315 ! = 0.03 \frac { 364 }{ 365 } \times \frac { 363 }{ 365 } \times ...\times \frac { 317 }{ 365 } \times \frac { 316 }{ 365 } =\frac { 364! }{ { 365 }^{ 49 }\times 315! } =0.03 However, we now need to subtract this answer from one to find the probability that one pair share a birthday. 1 0.03 = 0.97 1-0.03=\boxed{0.97} Now, there is a generalised formula for this: 364 ! 365 n 1 × ( 365 n ) ! \frac { 364! }{ { 365 }^{ n-1 }\times (365-n)! } Where n = the number of people choosing from! You can see why this is from the example above.

Credit should go to Jaiveer Shekhawat for filling in the gaps for some of my explanation. Thanks!

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