Promising start-up

Milos is the founder of a promising start-up company. The share price of his company is so volatile that it never stays the same for two or more consecutive days. Moreover, according to the current market conditions (which we assume will continue in the future), there is a 87.5% probability everyday that the share price will be go up the next day.

What is the expected number of days until the company records a decline in its share price for 3 days in a row?

64 72 343 448 512 584

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1 solution

Uros Stojkovic
Jul 1, 2017

Relevant wiki: Expected Value

Since the price of shares never stays the same for 2 2 or more consecutive days and the probability of growth is 7 8 \frac{7}{8} , then the probability of decline is 1 8 \frac{1}{8} .

Let X n X_{n} be the random variable that represents the number of days required to decline for n n consecutive days occur.

In order price to decline for n n consecutive days, it must first decline for n 1 n-1 days. Then, the n t h n^{th} consecutive decline will occur on the next day with 1 8 \frac{1}{8} probability, or the process will start over on the next day with 7 8 \frac{7}{8} probability. Thus, we can write:

E [ X n ] = E [ 1 8 ( X n 1 + 1 ) + 7 8 ( X n 1 + 1 + X n ) ] = E [ X n 1 + 1 + 7 8 X n ] E\left [ X_{n} \right ]=E\left [ \frac{1}{8}(X_{n-1}+1)+\frac{7}{8}(X_{n-1}+1+X_{n}) \right ]=E\left [ X_{n-1}+1+\frac{7}{8}X_{n} \right ]

By linearity of expectations:

E [ X n ] = E [ X n 1 ] + 1 + 7 8 E [ X n ] E\left [ X_{n} \right ]=E\left [ X_{n-1}\right ]+1+\frac{7}{8}E\left [ X_{n} \right ]

E [ X n ] = 8 E [ X n 1 ] + 8 \Rightarrow E\left [ X_{n} \right ]=8E\left [ X_{n-1}\right ]+ 8

It's known that E [ X 1 ] = 8 E\left [ X_{1} \right ]=8 , since that's number of days expected one day decline to occur. This result matches with logic and intuition. Then, by formula:

E [ X 2 ] = 8 × 8 + 8 = 72 E\left [ X_{2} \right ]=8\times 8+8=72 , and finally

E [ X 3 ] = 8 × 72 + 8 = 584 E\left [ X_{3} \right ]=8\times 72+8=584 .

The expected number of days until decline for 3 consecutive days occur is 584 \boxed{584} .

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