Two dice are rolled simultaneously.
This is done repeatedly until at least one die shows a 6, at which point the game is finished.
What is the probability that both dice show a 6 on the last roll?
The probability can be expressed as for co-prime positive integers and , find the value of .
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What we are wanting to calculate is the conditional probability that both dice show a 6 given that at least one die shows a 6 on the last roll. Letting A be the event that at least one die shows a 6 and B the event that both dice show a 6 , the desired probability is P ( B ∣ A ) = P ( A ) P ( B ∩ A ) .
Now B occurs whenever A does, so P ( B ∩ A ) = P ( B ) = ( 6 1 ) 2 = 3 6 1 .
Next, it is easiest to calculate P ( A ) by way of its complement, i.e.,
P ( A ) = 1 − P ( A ˉ ) = 1 − ( 6 5 ) 2 = 3 6 1 1 .
Thus P ( B ∣ A ) = 3 6 1 1 3 6 1 = 1 1 1 , and so a + b = 1 + 1 1 = 1 2 .