3 fair, standard six-sided dice. Any dice that show a 6 are removed, after which the remaining dice, (if any), are rolled again. As before, any dice showing a 6 are removed, and any remaining dice are rolled again. We repeat this process until all 3 dice have been removed.
Suppose we rollThe expected number of rolls needed until all 3 dice have been removed is b a , where a and b are positive coprime integers. Find a − b .
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Let E ( n ) be the expected number of rolls of n dice needed before each of the dice has shown a 6 and been removed according to the description in the text of the question.
It is well-known that E ( 1 ) = 6 . Now for two dice, there is a probability of 3 6 1 that both dice show 6 on the first roll, a probability of ( 6 5 ) 2 = 3 6 2 5 that neither do and a probability of 3 6 1 0 that precisely one of the dice shows a 6 . Thus
E ( 2 ) = 3 6 1 ∗ 1 + 3 6 1 0 ∗ ( 1 + E ( 1 ) ) + 3 6 2 5 ∗ ( 1 + E ( 2 ) )
⟹ 3 6 1 1 ∗ E ( 2 ) = 3 6 9 6 ⟹ E ( 2 ) = 1 1 9 6 .
Next, for 3 dice, there is a probability of 2 1 6 1 that all 3 dice show 6 on the first throw, 3 ∗ ( 6 5 ) 2 ∗ 6 1 = 2 1 6 7 5 that precisely one dice does, 3 ∗ ( 6 1 ) 2 ∗ 6 5 = 2 1 6 1 5 that precisely 2 do and ( 6 5 ) 3 = 2 1 6 1 2 5 that none do. We then have that
E ( 3 ) = 2 1 6 1 ∗ 1 + 2 1 6 7 5 ( E ( 2 ) + 1 ) + 2 1 6 1 5 ( E ( 1 ) + 1 ) + 2 1 6 1 2 5 ( E ( 3 ) + 1 )
⟹ 2 1 6 9 1 E ( 3 ) = 2 1 6 3 0 6 + ( 2 1 6 7 5 ) ( 1 1 9 6 ) ⟹ E ( 3 ) = 1 0 0 1 1 0 5 6 6 .
Thus a − b = 1 0 5 6 6 − 1 0 0 1 = 9 5 6 5 .
Solved using the same method. I wasn't much familiar with Expectations, read about it on the net and afterwards found it rather straight forward to reach the solution.
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Yes, once you have the general concept it is pretty straightforward. Glad this question led you to learn more about Expectations. :)
Why are you permuting the dices aren't they identical??
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They are, but for the purpose of creating the sample space we consider them to be distinct. So, for example, with two dice the sample space consists of 6 ∗ 6 = 3 6 outcomes, each having the same probability of occurring. 1 of these outcomes results in two 6 's, 1 0 result in precisely one 6 and 2 5 of which result in no 6 's. Have a look at this link for further explanation.
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The process is a Markov chain with transition matrix:
P = ⎣ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎡ 2 1 6 1 2 5 0 0 0 7 2 2 5 3 6 2 5 0 0 7 2 5 1 8 5 6 5 0 2 1 6 1 3 6 1 6 1 1 ⎦ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎤
Finding the fundamental matrix:
N = ⎝ ⎜ ⎛ ⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤ − ⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 2 1 6 1 2 5 0 0 7 2 2 5 3 6 2 5 0 7 2 5 1 8 5 6 5 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤ ⎠ ⎟ ⎞ − 1 = ⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 9 1 2 1 6 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 7 0 0 1 1 3 6 0 1 0 0 1 5 4 9 0 1 1 6 0 6 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤
Finally the expected number of steps to reach the absorbing state is:
⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 9 1 2 1 6 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 7 0 0 1 1 3 6 0 1 0 0 1 5 4 9 0 1 1 6 0 6 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤ ⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 1 1 1 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤ = ⎣ ⎢ ⎡ 1 0 0 1 1 0 5 6 6 1 1 9 6 6 ⎦ ⎥ ⎤
and since we started from the first state our expected number of rolls is 1 0 0 1 1 0 5 6 6 .