Seeing The Red Pin

Bowling pins are arranged in a triangular array of 10 pins. From the perspective of a bowler at one end of the lane, he cannot see all 10 pins on the other end because some are obscured from sight (as seen in the picture).

A pinsetter is used to replace the bowling pins. There are often more than 10 pins in the machine at any one time to allow for quicker pin setup. Suppose that there are 15 pins in a pinsetter, 14 white pins and 1 red pin. The pinsetter randomly chooses and sets 10 of them on the lane in the typical triangular arrangement. If the probability that the bowler can see the red pin is a b \frac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are positive coprime integers, then what is the value of a + b a+b ?


The answer is 22.

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12 solutions

The number of ways to choose 10 pins from 15 = ( 15 10 ) \dbinom{15}{10} .

Number of ways to choose 1 red pin and 9 white ones = ( 14 9 ) × 1 \dbinom{14}{9} \times 1

Probability of having a red pin in a ten pin arrangement = ( 14 9 ) ( 15 10 ) = 2 3 \frac{\dbinom{14}{9}}{\dbinom{15}{10}} = \frac{2}{3}

As there are 7 positions the red pin could be and 9! ways for the white pins and 10! ways to arrange ten pins, the probability of the red pin being visible is 7 × 9 ! 10 ! = 7 10 \frac{ 7 \times 9!}{10!} = \frac{7}{10} .

Therefore, the probability of selecting a red pin and it being visible is 2 3 × 7 10 = 7 15 \frac{2}{3} \times \frac{7}{10} = \frac{7}{15} .

7 + 15 = 22 7 + 15 = \boxed{22}

How can you use binomial symbol? I tried to use LaTex syntax but does not work D:

Brian Riccardi - 7 years, 3 months ago

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\binom{ }{ } or \dbinom{ }{ } for display mode. See link for other LaTex commands : http://www.artofproblemsolving.com/Wiki/index.php/LaTeX:Commands

Nucky Korprasertsri - 7 years, 3 months ago

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Also for fractions, \dfrac{}{} displays fractions better than \frac.

1 2 \dfrac{1}{2} compared to 1 2 \frac{1}{2}

Aditya Joshi - 7 years, 3 months ago
Test User
Feb 7, 2014

There are fifteen total pins, and seven places where the red pin could be placed - the odds are therefore 7 / 15 7/15 which causes a + b = 22 a+b=\boxed{22} .

The question is wrong because there are not 7 pins visible; there are 9. The picture shown is of a 10-pin setup. A 15-pin setup has an extra row at the back.

Josh Speckman - 7 years, 3 months ago

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There is 15 pins, but out of those 15 only 10 are set up.

Daniel Liu - 7 years, 2 months ago

this is wrong

soyu matthew - 7 years, 3 months ago

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Not necessarily, it's just a bad/unclear explanation. A better explanation would be:

There are fifteen places each pin can go (imagine that the place sin the "not used" bin are distinct), and since seven of them work, the probability is 7 15 \frac{7}{15} .

Michael Tong - 7 years, 3 months ago
Aditya Joshi
Feb 15, 2014

First, we find the probability that the red pin is chosen from the 15 15 available pins.

That is equal to ( 14 9 ) ( 15 10 ) = 2 3 \dfrac{\dbinom{14}{9}}{\dbinom{15}{10}} = \dfrac{2}{3}

Now, the probability of the bowler seeing the pins depends on if the pins are set in the 7 7 favourable positions. There are exactly 3 3 positions in the triangle where the bowler cannot see the pins. The probability of this happening is 7 10 \dfrac{7}{10}

The probability of these events happening together is 2 3 × 7 10 = 7 15 \dfrac{2}{3} \times \dfrac{7}{10} = \dfrac{7}{15} giving us 7 + 15 = 22 7 + 15 = \boxed{22}

Venture Hi
Feb 7, 2014

Total available combinations= 15C10 ( choose 10 from 15) = 3003 To choose one red pin from 15 pins = total of all - (those with no red pins No red pin means ALL white pins = 14C10 ( or choose only 10 from 14 whites)= 1001 Therefore, to have one red pin from 15 pins is 3003-1001= 2002 The probability of choosing a red pin in the 10 pin combination is 2002/3003.

Therefore, the probability of seeing the red pin is 2002/3003 * 7/10= 14014/30030=7/15

^You are overthinking it.

At the end of placement,there are 7 pins you can see, and 15 pins total. 7/15.

Daniel Wang - 7 years, 4 months ago
Geoff Pilling
Jan 24, 2019

There are 15 pins. After any given setup, 7 are visible. So the probability that the red pin is one of those is 7/15.

Sudheer P
Mar 4, 2014

Total number of ways in which 15 pins can be arranged = 15!. Favourable outcomes are where one of the red pin is in the 7 visible slots, once the red pin is placed, we have 14! ways of arranging the remaining white pins. Therefore, Probability of red pin being visible = 7 × 14 ! 15 ! = 7 15 \frac{7 \times 14!}{ 15!} = \frac{7}{15} .

Taehyung Kim
Feb 18, 2014

Suppose bowling pins were arranged in triangular array of 15. Of these, the red pin must be in 7 places to be "seen". Thus the probability is 7/15.

If this seems unclear you can try thinking of the last row as the "not included" row.

Taehyung Kim - 7 years, 3 months ago

Probability of choosing a red pin is 14C9/15C10 = 2/3 probability of seeing the pin is 7/10. so probability of seeing the red pin is 2/3 x 7/10 = 7/15 so a + b = 22

Martin Falk
Feb 15, 2014

First, the probability that the collection contains the red pin is

1 P ( 1-P( all black ) = 1 ( 15 14 ) ( 15 10 ) = 2 3 )=1- \frac{{15 \choose 14} }{ {15 \choose 10}} = \frac{2}{3} .

From a frontal view, three of the ten pins cannot be seen.

The probability that a red pin is visible is thus:

2 3 7 10 = 7 15 \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{7}{10} = \frac{7}{15} ,

which gives the answer 7 + 15 = 22 7+15= \boxed{22} .

Correction: 1 ( 14 10 ) ( 15 10 ) 1- \frac{ {14 \choose 10 }}{{15 \choose 10} }

Martin Falk - 7 years, 3 months ago
Agnes Fung
Feb 14, 2014

Probability of RED pin being in the triangle: 10 15 \frac{10}{15}

Probability of being able to see the red pin, within the triangle: 7 10 \frac{7}{10}

Multiplying the above two probabilities gives the probability of the pin setter choosing the red pin and placing that red pin where the bowler can view it.

10 15 × 7 10 = 7 15 \frac{10}{15} \times \frac{7}{10} = \frac{7}{15}

7 + 15 = 22 7+15=22

probability for the red pin to be in 10 pins chosen by pinsetter = 10/15 = 2/3
probability that pin is visible from 10 pins chosen = 7/10 (as 7 pins are visible)

Total probability = 2/3*7/10 = 7/15 a=7 and b = 15 ; a+b = 22

Michael Tong
Feb 13, 2014

Imagine a line pins, 14 14 white and 1 1 red. We say the red pin "shows" if it is in one of the first 7 7 spots. Thus, the desired probability is 7 15 \frac{7}{15} .

Where was it mentioned that all the pins are different in the question?? Could anyone tell me the solution considering all the pins are identical?

Sandeep Sunnapu - 7 years, 2 months ago

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