Sex ratio in the long term

It is very unfortunate that some patriarchal societies value the birth of a male child more than that of a female child. Consider one such society X X where the couples want to have exactly one male child no matter how many females children they have. If the first born child is a boy then they don’t want to have any children further else they keep on having more and more children until the first boy is born.

In the long term which number the sex ratio of this society with such a horrible mindset is going to approach?

Notes:

  • Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 males.
  • Assume that the birth of a male or a female child are equiprobable events and a couple can have as many children as they want.
990 1010 967 1000 1033

This section requires Javascript.
You are seeing this because something didn't load right. We suggest you, (a) try refreshing the page, (b) enabling javascript if it is disabled on your browser and, finally, (c) loading the non-javascript version of this page . We're sorry about the hassle.

2 solutions

Richard Desper
Nov 27, 2019

If the gender of a child is equally distributed among boys and girls, then it's equally distributed among boys and girls, regardless of whether or how parents decide to shape their family size.

You could make your life difficult by summing up the numbers of boys and girls by partitioning the population according to family size. Or you could just count the number of boys and number of girls leaving the delivery room. And we're told as a condition that these numbers will be equal.

Dhruva Ahuja
Nov 2, 2019

If the first child born is a boy:

Probability of having the first child as a boy would be P(1st as a Boy) = 1/2

Ratio of a girl to a boy in this case would be 0/1.

Similarly,

Probability of having the second child as a boy would be P(2nd as a Boy) = 1/2 * 1/2

Ratio of a girl to a boy in this case would be 1/1.

So, expected value for the ratio of a girl to a boy in the long term can be written as a sum of infinite series:

S = ( 1 2 ) × 0 + ( 1 2 ) 2 × 1 + ( 1 2 ) 3 × 2 + ( 1 2 ) 4 × 3 + S=\left( \frac {1} {2}\right)\times{0} +\left( \frac {1} {2}\right) ^{2}\times 1+\left( \frac {1} {2}\right) ^{3}\times 2+\left( \frac {1} {2}\right) ^{4}\times 3+\ldots

For the simplicity I am writing 1/2 as x {x}

=> S = 0 x + x 2 + 2 x 3 + 3 x 4 + + ( n 1 ) x n S=0\cdot x+ x^{2}+2x^{3}+3x^{4}+\ldots +\left( n-1\right) x^{n}

This looks like an arithmetic-geometric progression which can be solved by multiplying by x {x} both sides:

=> S x = 0 x 2 + x 3 + 2 x 4 + + ( n 2 ) x n + ( n 1 ) x n + 1 S\cdot x = 0\cdot x^{2}+x^{3}+2x^{4}+\ldots +\left( n-2\right) x^{n}+\left( n-1\right) x^{n+1}

=> S ( 1 x ) = x 2 + x 3 + x 4 + . . . + x n ( n 1 ) x n + 1 S\left( 1-x\right) =x^{2}+x^{3}+x^{4}+... +x^{n}-\left( n-1\right) x^{n+1}

Since x {x} < 1

=> S ( 1 x ) = x 2 1 x ( n 1 ) x n + 1 S\left( 1-x\right) =\frac {x^{2}} {1-x}-\left( n-1\right) x^{n+1}

and n x n + 1 = 0 n\rightarrow \infty \Rightarrow x^{n+1}=0

=> S ( 1 2 ) = ( 1 2 ) 2 1 1 2 0 S\left( \frac {1} {2}\right) =\frac {\left( \frac {1} {2}\right) ^{2}} {1-\frac {1} {2}}-0

=> S = 1 S=1

The ratio of a girl to a boy is 1, so the sex ratio will be 1000.

0 pending reports

×

Problem Loading...

Note Loading...

Set Loading...