Six ice hockey players throw their sticks on the ice. The six players then each randomly pick one of the sticks lying on the ice.
What is the probability that exactly one player picks his own stick?
If the probability can be expressed as b a for coprime positive integers a and b , find a + b .
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This question is a good example for derangement. First, we can select one person out of 6 who gets his own stick in 6 ways.
Total sample space = 6!
5 persons stick can be disarranged in 44 ways is based on Derangement Formula link.
Hence, the required probability is,
44*6/6! = 11/30 = a/b.
a+b = 11+30 = 41.
Total no.of ways = 6 ! because 6 sticks can be arranged among 6 persons in this many ways.
Now, we choose and fix a person who gets his own stick (which can be done in 6 ways).
Rest of the 5 persons won't get their stick. Hence, the no. of derangements possible = 5 ! × ( 1 − 1 ! 1 + 2 ! 1 − 3 ! 1 + 4 ! 1 − 5 ! 1 ) = 5 ! × 3 0 1 1
So, no. of ways in which exactly one player picks his own stick = 6 × 5 ! × 3 0 1 1 = 6 ! × 3 0 1 1
Thus, required probability = 6 ! 6 ! × 3 0 1 1 = 3 0 1 1
And, of course, 1 1 + 3 0 = 4 1
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Of the 6 ! possible assignments of sticks to players, we want to count those which give 1 stick to the correct player, and none of the other 5 sticks to the correct player.
There are 6 ways to choose the one correct assignment. Using derangements , there are D 5 = 4 4 ways to give the other sticks to incorrect players.
The probability is thus 6 ! 6 ⋅ 4 4 = 1 2 0 4 4 = 3 0 1 1 , so a + b = 4 1 .