If the probability of getting at least one pair of matching dice when rolling five 6-sided dice is , where and are positive co-prime integers, then what is ?
Note: Three-of-a-kind, four-of-a-kind, full house, yahtzee, or two pairs would all count as "at least one pair of matching dice." However, a straight ( or ) or a small straight would not count.
Check out The anti-Yahtzee first to make finding the solution to this problem trivial.
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The solution to the anti-Yahtzee problem, in which the goal was to get five distinct dice rolls, is 6 6 × 6 5 × 6 4 × 6 3 × 6 2 = 5 4 5 . Alternatively, 6 5 ( 5 6 ) × 5 ! = 5 4 5 .
This problem asks for the complement event of the anti-Yahtzee problem. Therefore, the probability is 1 − 5 4 5 = 5 4 4 9 , and so a + b = 1 0 3 .