Straight up unfair

Level 2

You are bored one day and decide to keep flipping an unfair coin until it lands on tails. It has a 60 % 60\% chance of landing on heads. If you get tails on the N th N^\text{th} flip, the probability that N N is an integer multiple of 3 can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are coprime positive integers. Find a + b . a+b.


The answer is 58.

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3 solutions

Andrew Miller
Sep 9, 2017

We want to find the sum of the probabilities of getting tails on a multiple of three:

P r ( tails on 3rd flip ) + P r ( tails on 6th flip ) + P r ( tails on 9th flip ) + = ( 3 5 ) 2 2 5 + ( 3 5 ) 5 2 5 + ( 3 5 ) 8 2 5 + Pr(\text{tails on 3rd flip})+Pr(\text{tails on 6th flip})+Pr(\text{tails on 9th flip})+\dots=(\frac{3}{5})^2\frac{2}{5}+(\frac{3}{5})^5\frac{2}{5}+(\frac{3}{5})^8\frac{2}{5}+\dots .

This is a geometric series whose initial term is

a 0 = ( 3 5 ) 2 2 5 a_0=(\frac{3}{5})^2\frac{2}{5}

and whose ratio is

r = ( 3 5 ) 3 r=(\frac{3}{5})^3 .

So the series sums to a 0 1 r = 9 49 \frac{a_0}{1-r}=\frac{9}{49} , and our answer is 9 + 49 = 58 9+49=58 .

Your explanation was very helpful, but I’m struggling to understand why do you calculate the sum of a series? The text says that we want to calculate the probability of success obtained on the Nth roll. Not the probability of obtaining success at maximum on the Nth roll.

I will appreciate your insight. Piotr

Piotr Trochim - 1 year, 11 months ago

Actually what he calculated was the sum of all the probabilities of getting tails for the first time in Nth roll, in which N is an integer multiple of three.

Arman Özcan - 1 year, 10 months ago

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Yes, that’s also how I understood his calculations. That was not however what the task was about.

Piotr Trochim - 1 year, 10 months ago

The task was to find the probability of getting tails in 3Nth roll. So, he basically computed all 3Ns.

Arman Özcan - 1 year, 10 months ago

This is a geometric distribution with the single flip probability of success p = 2 5 p=\frac{2}{5} . A successful flip is a multiple of 3, so the number of failures before the first success is k = 3 n 1 k = 3 n-1 , where n = 1, 2 ... \infty . Summing up the probabilities of all successful flips gives the total probability we are looking for:

P r ( n ) = n = 1 p ( 1 p ) 3 n 1 Pr(n)=\sum _{n=1}^{\infty } p (1-p)^{3 n-1}

Plugging in the numbers gives the probability of 9 49 \frac{9}{49} , so the answer is 9+49= 58 \boxed{58}

Fabio Buccoliero
Feb 19, 2016

The probability that you obtain tail during the third attempt is 18 125 \frac{18}{125} . From now on interesting results occur when your probability is multiplied by a power of 27 125 \frac{27}{125} , because in this way your N N will be a multiple of 3 3 . In order to obtain such a probability you notice that this is a geometric series, with ratio 27 125 \frac{27}{125} . So the solution to the geometric series, obtained by using the geometric series formula, is 1 1 27 125 = 125 87 \frac{1}{1-\frac{27}{125}} = \frac{125}{87} . Now you have to multiply this result with the first you obtained, so 18 125 × 125 87 = 9 49 \frac{18}{125} \times \frac{125}{87} = \frac{9}{49} . Thus the solution is 49 \boxed{49}

You should sum 9 + 49, to get the answer of 58.

Ozzy Gonzalez - 5 years, 3 months ago

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