Imagine expanding a regular deck of playing cards so that there are a total of n suits, with n aces, n kings, n queens, and so on, for a total of 1 3 n cards.
You then deal out a 5 -card poker hand from the deck with n suits.
Let A ( n ) be the probability of being dealt a full house from the deck with n suits, B ( n ) the probability of being dealt a four of a kind from the deck with n suits, C ( n ) be the probability of being dealt a three of a kind from the deck with n suits, and D ( n ) be the probability of being dealt two pairs from the deck with n suits.
Find the value of n → ∞ lim B ( n ) C ( n ) A ( n ) D ( n ) .
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Nice solution! I also did it a similar way.
This is a bit sketchy, but it gives the right idea.
First, A ( n ) = 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ P ( A A A K K ) , where A A A K K is any hand with three aces and two kings. And P ( A A A K K ) = ( 2 5 ) P ( A / A / A / K / K ) , where A / A / A / K / K is the hand in order: first three aces, then two kings. We'll use this notation in the following parts as well. Now the probability of any ordered hand where we're given the ranks of each card is dependent on n , but in the limit as n → ∞ the cards are essentially being chosen with replacement, i.e. drawing one ace doesn't decrease the probability of drawing another one. (This is the sketchy part--it's correct but it probably could use a more rigorous argument.) That is, P ( A / A / A / K / K ) → 1 3 5 1 as n → ∞ .
So A ( n ) → 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 1 0 ⋅ 1 3 5 1 .
Now B ( n ) = 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ P ( A A A A K ) = 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 5 ⋅ P ( A / A / A / A / K ) → 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 1 3 5 1 .
Now C ( n ) = 1 3 ⋅ ( 2 1 2 ) ⋅ P ( A A A K Q ) (the binomial coefficient is because K and Q are interchangeable), so C ( n ) = 1 3 ⋅ ( 2 1 2 ) ⋅ 2 0 ⋅ P ( A / A / A / K / Q ) → 1 3 ⋅ ( 2 1 2 ) ⋅ 2 0 ⋅ 1 3 5 1 . The 2 0 comes from the product of five choices for the king's position and then four choices for the queen's position, or if you like, it's the multinomial coefficient ( 3 , 1 , 1 5 ) .
Finally, D ( n ) = ( 2 1 3 ) ⋅ 1 1 ⋅ P ( A A K K Q ) → ( 2 1 3 ) ⋅ 1 1 ⋅ 3 0 ⋅ 1 3 5 1 . The 3 0 comes from five choices for the queen and then ( 2 4 ) choices for the position of the king pair, or if you like, it's the multinomial coefficient ( 2 , 2 , 1 5 ) .
Putting it together (and noticing that the 1 3 5 1 factors cancel), we get B ( n ) C ( n ) A ( n ) D ( n ) → ( 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 5 ) ( 1 3 ⋅ ( 2 1 2 ) ⋅ 2 0 ) ( 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 1 0 ) ( ( 2 1 3 ) ⋅ 1 1 ⋅ 3 0 ) = 3 .
Nice solution!
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Each of the four probabilities will have the same denominator so we really just need the numerators. In other words the number of possible hands of each type.
Let A ′ ( n ) be the number of possible full house hands from the deck with n suits, etc. These enumerations are modified from this Wikipedia entry
A ′ ( n ) = ( 1 1 3 ) ( 3 n ) ( 2 1 2 ) ( 2 n )
B ′ ( n ) = ( 1 1 3 ) ( 4 n ) ( 1 1 2 ) ( 1 n )
C ′ ( n ) = ( 1 1 3 ) ( 3 n ) ( 2 1 2 ) ( 1 n ) 2
D ′ ( n ) = ( 2 1 3 ) ( 2 n ) 2 ( 1 1 1 ) ( 1 n )
Setting up the big fraction and canceling out every term that appears in the numerator and denominator leaves
B ( n ) C ( n ) A ( n ) D ( n ) = B ′ ( n ) C ′ ( n ) A ′ ( n ) D ′ ( n ) = ( 4 n ) ( 1 1 3 ) ( 2 1 2 ) ( 1 n ) 2 ( 2 n ) 3 ( 2 1 3 ) ( 1 1 1 ) = 2 4 n ( n − 1 ) ( n − 2 ) ( n − 3 ) ⋅ 1 3 ⋅ 2 1 2 ⋅ 1 1 ⋅ n 2 ( 2 n ( n − 1 ) ) 3 ⋅ 2 1 3 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ 1 1 = ( n − 2 ) ( n − 3 ) 3 ( n − 1 ) ( n − 1 )
n → ∞ lim ( n − 2 ) ( n − 3 ) 3 ( n − 1 ) ( n − 1 ) = 3