The weather in Mathtown behaves strangely. On each day during the month of March, it is either sunny or raining. If it was sunny on a particular day, it will be sunny the next day with probability 1 0 9 . If it was rainy on a particular day, it will be rainy the next day with probability 1 0 7 . Suppose the probability that it is sunny on March 1 st is p and that the probability of it being sunny on any given day during the month is identically p . Then p can be expressed as b a where a and b are coprime positive integers. What is the value of a + b ?
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Same way.
The probability of it raining a particular day is 1 − p and the probability of the weather being sunny after a rainy day is 1 − 1 0 7 = 1 0 3 . It can be sunny after a rainy day or a sunny day so the probability of a particular day being sunny, which is p, can be written as:
p = p × 1 0 9 + ( 1 − p ) × 1 0 3
Solving for p will give p = 4 3 , hence the answer is 3 + 4 = 7
The probability that is sunny on March 1st is p , while the probability of being rainy on March 1st can be expressed as 1 − p .
The probability of it being sunny on March 2nd can be calculated by summing up the two different weather conditions we'd had on March 1st as follows:
1 0 9 × p + 1 0 3 × ( 1 − p )
It is also stated in the problem definition that the probability of being sunny on any given day of March (e.g March 2nd) is p . Therefore we can write the following equation:
p = 1 0 9 × p + 1 0 3 × ( 1 − p )
By solving the simple equation above, we'll have p = 4 3 . Thus the final answer would be 7 .
given "the probability of a day being sunny on any given day during the month is identically p" consider day 2
probability that day 2 is sunny= day 1 sunny and day 2 sunny + day 1 rainy and day 2 sunny
p= p . (9/10) + (1-p)(1-7/10)
p=3/4
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On day 1, P ( s u n s h i n e ) = p .
On day 2, P ( s u n s h i n e ) = p × 1 0 9 + ( 1 − p ) × 1 0 3 = p .
Solving, p = 4 3 and 3 + 4 = 7 .