It's the year 2050, and Apple just released their iPhone 29. Trying to ship their "new" product to as many cities as possible, a robot is designed to organize the phones into boxes, each box being capable of holding up to 100 phones. Every night the robot is tasked with filling up 35 boxes labeled 1 to 35. To fill the boxes, the robot chooses a random box, places a phone in it, and repeats these two steps until each box is full. Also, each box is equally likely to be chosen.
After randomly placing 25 phones, the probability that the 26 th phone is placed in a box with no other phones in it is X .
Find ⌈ 1 0 0 0 0 X ⌉ .
You may use computer assistance for the final step of your calculation.
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Let there be N boxes, and let p n , j , for 1 ≤ j ≤ n be the probability that, after n phones have been placed, that there are j boxes containing at least one phone. We shall restrict attention to the case n < N ≤ 1 0 0 , to avoid complications of running out of empty boxes, or filling any of the boxes.
It is clear that p 1 , 1 = 1 , and that p 2 , 1 = N 1 and p 2 , 2 = N N − 1 . Also note that p n , 1 = p n − 1 , 1 × N 1 p n , n = p n − 1 , n − 1 × N N + 1 − n n ≥ 2 so that p n , 1 = N n − 1 1 = N n N , p n , n = N n − 1 ( N − 1 ) ( N − 2 ) ⋯ ( N + 1 − n ) = ( N − n ) ! N n N ! n ≥ 1 More generally, if 2 ≤ j ≤ n − 1 , then p n , j = p n − 1 , j × N j + p n − 1 , j − 1 × N N + 1 − j By induction on n , we can show that p n , j = N n j ! { n j } ( N j ) 1 ≤ j ≤ n < N ≤ 1 0 0 where { n j } is the Stirling number of the second kind.
Thus the probability that the ( n + 1 ) st phone is placed into an empty box is P ( n ) = j = 1 ∑ n p n , j × N N − j = N n + 1 1 j = 1 ∑ n ( N − j ) j ! { n j } ( N j ) n < N ≤ 1 0 0 With N = 3 5 , we compute X = P ( 2 5 ) = 3 9 9 6 6 9 5 9 3 4 7 2 4 7 0 3 1 3 5 5 1 1 2 7 9 1 0 6 1 4 0 1 3 6 7 1 8 7 5 1 9 3 6 3 0 1 2 5 1 0 4 9 8 0 4 2 7 9 3 2 7 6 6 0 3 3 3 7 4 1 6 2 7 1 4 6 2 4 and since 1 0 0 0 0 X = 4 8 4 4 . 7 5 . . . , the answer is 4 8 4 5 .
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Since a box can hold up to 100 phones, which is larger than 26, we may assume each box has infinite capacity, so each phone can be placed in any of the boxes with equal probability, and the phones are mutually independent (where a phone is placed doesn't affect other phones).
Fix the box where the 26th phone is placed. The probability that any one phone is not placed in this box is 3 4 / 3 5 , so the probability that the previous 25 phones are not placed in this box is simply ( 3 4 / 3 5 ) 2 5 ≈ 0 . 4 8 4 4 7 5 4 9 … , so the answer is 4 8 4 5 .