The Liar (Baye's theorem question)

A man, on average lies one out of his every 4 statements. He rolls a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.

P.S.- This problem wasn't created by me. It was in my math book as an example and I'am pretty sure that it is solved incorrectly there. I'am just looking for agreement to my answer here. Thanks for solving!

1/8 1/4 3/4 3/8

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2 solutions

Shashank Katiyar
Dec 3, 2018

first find probability of reporting six as truth-

P1= 1/6x3/4=3/24 1/6 - probability of appearance of six 3/4 - probability of speaking truth thus their product gives probability of their simultaneous occurrence

now find probability of reporting six as false-

for this, first either of 1,2,3,4,5 must have appeared on the die, then we multiply by 1/4 as the person must be speaking false, and then as false, he can speak any 5 numbers except the one that appeared on the die and of these 5, the probability of him speaking 6 will be 1/5.

Thus P2= 5/6x1/4x1/5=1/24

Thus, he speaks truth 6 with probability 3/24 and false 6 with probability 1/24. So probability of truth 6 when it is given that he spoke 6 is (3/24)/(3/24+1/24)= 3/4

Jordan Cahn
Dec 3, 2018

By Bayes's Theorem: P ( die shows 6 man says 6 ) = P ( man says 6 die show 6 ) × P ( die shows 6 ) P ( man says 6 ) = 3 4 × 1 6 1 6 × 3 4 + 5 6 × 1 4 × 1 5 Assuming he chooses randomly when he lies = 1 8 1 8 + 1 24 = 24 8 ( 3 + 1 ) = 3 4 \begin{aligned} P(\text{die shows 6}\mid\text{man says 6}) &= \frac{P(\text{man says 6}\mid\text{die show 6})\times P(\text{die shows 6})}{P(\text{man says 6})} \\ &= \frac{\frac{3}{4}\times\frac{1}{6}}{\frac{1}{6}\times\frac{3}{4} + \frac{5}{6}\times\frac{1}{4}\times{\color{#3D99F6}\frac{1}{5}}} && \color{#3D99F6}\text{Assuming he chooses randomly when he lies} \\ &= \frac{\frac{1}{8}}{\frac{1}{8} + \frac{1}{24}} \\ &= \frac{24}{8(3+1)} \\ &= \boxed{\frac{3}{4}} \end{aligned}

If your text said something different, it's possible they were assuming the man will always say "six" when he lies (if the roll wasn't actually a six), in which case the answer would be 3 8 \frac{3}{8} .

Or there was a mistake in the solution (it happens).

Exactly, there they had assumed that whenever the man lies, he would say six. Thanks for your reply!

Shashank Katiyar - 2 years, 6 months ago

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