The Logistic Function (Population Growth)

Calculus Level 3

Exponential functions are prevalent in many problems in science, business, economics, medicine, and sociology. One important function, the logistic function, is often used to analyze population growth that is limited by natural environmental factors. The general form of the logistic function is

P ( t ) = A 1 + B e C t , P(t)=\frac{A}{1+Be^{-Ct}}, where constants A A , B B , and C C are usually determined experimentally.

Suppose that population in a town is modeled by

P ( t ) = 20 , 000 1 + 4 e 2 t , P(t)=\frac{20,000}{1+4e^{-2t}}, where P ( t ) P(t) is number of population and t t is time in year. Let t 1 t_1 be the time when the population growth rate begin to decline and t 2 t_2 be the time when the population reach 80 80 percent of its limit, then t 1 + t 2 t_1+t_2 can be expressed as T ln 2 T\ln 2 . Determine the value of T T .


The answer is 3.

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5 solutions

Purushottam Kar
Mar 18, 2014

The population growth rate is given by P ( t ) = A B C e C t ( 1 + B e C t ) 2 P'(t) = \frac{ABCe^{-Ct}}{(1+Be^{-Ct})^2} and the population acceleration rate is given by P ( t ) = A B 2 C 2 e 2 C t A B C 2 e C t ( 1 + B e C t ) 3 P''(t) = \frac{AB^2C^2e^{-2Ct}-ABC^2e^{-Ct}}{(1+Be^{-Ct})^3} Since lim t P ( t ) = A \lim_{t\rightarrow\infty} P(t) = A , putting P ( t ) = 4 A 5 P(t) = \frac{4A}{5} , we get t 2 = 2 lg 2 t_2 = 2\lg 2 and putting P ( t ) 0 P''(t) \leq 0 gives us t 1 lg 2 t_1 \geq \lg 2

Gautam Shenoy
Mar 20, 2014

If you know some properties of the logistics function, one is that it's derivative starts decreasing when the function is at 50% of limit. That's the key here. You get ln(2) for this and 2ln(2) for the 80% case. Hence 3.

Awnon Bhowmik
Mar 27, 2014

I don't know why people are trying to solve this ;)

Look at the graph guys. Graph is created for a reason, to simplify our lives. I didn't even solve the equation. Since it says, when does the growth starts to decrease and reaches 80%, the slope of the graph will be tending towards zero (no or little rise on y-axis, compared to the run on the x-axis) :P

The nearest possible corresponding x value at the specific point is given by x = 3, that's how we get it

for t1,it is given p'(t) is declining.we assume f(x)=p'(t),as f(x )is decreasing at t1,so f(x ) has a maximum value at t1.make f'(x)=0 or p"(t)=0.it will give thr maxima t=ln2,whic is actually,t1.therefore we get t1=ln 2.For t2,proceed as Purushottam Kar's method given below..

Pramit Das
Mar 22, 2014

T=3

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