A trolling question

You're walking through an old bridge when the bridge suddenly breaks and you fall in the valley below. As you crash into the rocks, you realise that somehow, you survived the fall. But suddenly, an evil troll appears out of nowhere. Behind him there are three portals that had entrances covered by a really cloudy mist you can't see through. The troll laughs an evil laugh and says " I have three portals here: one will lead you at the top of the valley, and two will trap you in hell. Choose your portal now." You choose the first one. "Well," says the troll," How about now?" Another portal disappears but you don't know where that portal will lead you. So, which portal should you stick with your portal or switch to the other one to have te highest chance to go back to the top of the valley?

Doesn't matter Switch to the other portal Stick with your portal

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1 solution

Www Www
May 24, 2016

It doesn't matter which one you choose- they both have a 50% chance of getting you to the top of the valley.

This is similar to the Monty Hall Problem . Counterintuitively, the probability is the same regardless of the portal disappearing.

Aaron Tsai - 5 years ago

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Can you explain why please?

Alex Li - 5 years ago

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They both have a 50% chance of getting you to the top of the valley,because you don't know where the portal that just disappeared will lead you-it could lead you to heaven or hell. In the Monty Hall problem, you know that the door that opened had a goat in it.

Www Www - 5 years ago

Wait I thought the whole point of the monty hall problem was that this wasn't true? What exactly is the difference in this problem from that one?

Alex Li - 5 years ago

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