The type of deck makes no difference...

A Spanish deck of cards is made of 48 cards and four p a l o s palos (12 cards each): o r o s oros , b a s t o s bastos , c o p a s copas and e s p a d a s espadas .

Antonio, Benito, Carlos, and Diego take turns in the given order drawing a card at random from the deck, returning it and reshuffling. The first to draw o r o s oros wins. As you may already suspect, the chances of winning are not even. The sooner you start drawing, the better your chances. Their probabilities can be expressed as p A = a 175 , p B = b 175 , p C = c 175 , p D = d 175 p_A=\frac{a}{175}, p_B=\frac{b}{175},p_C=\frac{c}{175}, p_D=\frac{d}{175} , where a , b , c , d a,b,c,d are all distinct integers and only one of them is an odd number. Find its value.


The answer is 27.

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3 solutions

Gabriel Chacón
Feb 22, 2019

The probability of drawing o r o s oros is 1 4 \frac{1}{4} , and not drawing o r o s oros is of course 3 4 \frac{3}{4} .

Antonio goes first. He may win in the 1st turn, or in the 5th provided the rest of the players lose in their respective turns, or in the 9th... p A = 1 4 + ( 3 4 ) 4 × 1 4 + ( 3 4 ) 8 × 1 4 + = 1 4 × 1 1 ( 3 4 ) 4 = 64 175 p_A=\dfrac{1}{4}+\left( \dfrac{3}{4} \right)^4\times \dfrac{1}{4}+\left( \dfrac{3}{4} \right)^8\times \dfrac{1}{4} +\ldots=\dfrac{1}{4} \times \dfrac{1}{1-(\frac{3}{4})^4}=\dfrac{64}{175}

For Benito to win, Antonio must lose his respective turns. Benito's turns are the 2nd, the 6th, the 10th... : p B = 3 4 × 1 4 + ( 3 4 ) 5 × 1 4 + ( 3 4 ) 9 × 1 4 + = 3 4 × 1 4 × 1 1 ( 3 4 ) 4 = 48 175 Note that p B = 3 4 p A p_B=\dfrac{3}{4}\times\dfrac{1}{4}+\left( \dfrac{3}{4} \right)^5\times \dfrac{1}{4}+\left( \dfrac{3}{4} \right)^9\times \dfrac{1}{4} +\ldots=\dfrac{3}{4}\times\dfrac{1}{4} \times \dfrac{1}{1-(\frac{3}{4})^4}=\dfrac{48}{175}\quad \textcolor{#3D99F6}{ \text{Note that }p_B=\frac{3}{4}p_A}

The pattern repeats for Carlos, p C = ( 3 4 ) 2 p A = 36 175 p_C=(\frac{3}{4})^2 p_A=\dfrac{36}{175} and Diego, p D = ( 3 4 ) 3 p A = 27 175 p_D=(\frac{3}{4})^3p_A=\dfrac{\textbf{27}}{175} .

Therefore a = 64 , b = 48 , c = 36 a=64,b=48,c=36 and d = 27 \boxed{d=27} .

I had to surrender. I did calculate until the fifth iteration but the numbers were getting out of control very quickly (many figures each) and I couldn't find any way of having 175 in the denominator.

Félix Pérez Haoñie - 2 years, 3 months ago

Table [ 1 4 ( 3 4 ) p i = 0 ( 3 4 ) 4 i , { p , 0 , 3 } ] { 64 175 , 48 175 , 36 175 , 27 175 } \text{Table}\left[\frac{1}{4} \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^p \sum _{i=0}^{\infty } \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{4 i},\{p,0,3\}\right] \Longrightarrow \left\{\frac{64}{175},\frac{48}{175},\frac{36}{175},\frac{27}{175}\right\}

The probability a person will be able to draw in this round of four draws: Table [ ( 3 4 ) p , { p , 0 , 3 } ] { 1 , 3 4 , 9 16 , 27 64 } \text{Table}\left[\left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^p,\{p,0,3\}\right] \Longrightarrow \left\{1,\frac{3}{4},\frac{9}{16},\frac{27}{64}\right\} .

The probability of winning if you get to draw in this round of draws: 1 4 \frac14 .

The probability of winning in this round of draws: 1 4 { 1 , 3 4 , 9 16 , 27 64 } { 1 4 , 3 16 , 9 64 , 27 256 } \frac14 \left\{1,\frac{3}{4},\frac{9}{16},\frac{27}{64}\right\} \Longrightarrow \left\{\frac{1}{4},\frac{3}{16},\frac{9}{64},\frac{27}{256}\right\} .

Lastly, we need the infinite sum of the factors of surviving an infinite series of rounds: i = 0 ( 3 4 ) 4 i = i = 0 ( 81 256 ) i 256 175 \sum _{i=0}^{\infty } \left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^{4 i} =\sum _{i=0}^{\infty } \left(\frac{81}{256}\right)^i \Longrightarrow \frac{256}{175} .

Finally, 256 175 { 1 4 , 3 16 , 9 64 , 27 256 } { 64 175 , 48 175 , 36 175 , 27 175 } \frac{256}{175} \left\{\frac{1}{4},\frac{3}{16},\frac{9}{64},\frac{27}{256}\right\} \Longrightarrow \left\{\frac{64}{175},\frac{48}{175},\frac{36}{175},\frac{27}{175}\right\}

Chris Lewis
Feb 28, 2019

The key observation is that p B = 3 4 p A p_B=\frac{3}{4}p_A , p C = 3 4 p B p_C=\frac{3}{4}p_B and p D = 3 4 p C p_D=\frac{3}{4}p_C .

Using this and the fact that p A + p B + p C + p D = 1 p_A+p_B+p_C+p_D=1 , we have

p A ( 1 + 3 4 + ( 3 4 ) 2 + ( 3 4 ) 3 ) = 1 p_A \left( 1+\frac{3}{4} + \left(\frac{3}{4} \right)^2 + \left(\frac{3}{4} \right)^3 \right) = 1

Solving gives p A = 64 175 p_A = \frac{64}{175} ; we then get p B = 48 175 p_B = \frac{48}{175} , p C = 36 175 p_C = \frac{36}{175} and p D = 27 175 p_D = \frac{27}{175} . The only odd numerator is 27 \boxed{27} .

Nice solution!

Gabriel Chacón - 2 years, 3 months ago

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