A Spanish deck of cards is made of 48 cards and four p a l o s (12 cards each): o r o s , b a s t o s , c o p a s and e s p a d a s .
Antonio, Benito, Carlos, and Diego take turns in the given order drawing a card at random from the deck, returning it and reshuffling. The first to draw o r o s wins. As you may already suspect, the chances of winning are not even. The sooner you start drawing, the better your chances. Their probabilities can be expressed as p A = 1 7 5 a , p B = 1 7 5 b , p C = 1 7 5 c , p D = 1 7 5 d , where a , b , c , d are all distinct integers and only one of them is an odd number. Find its value.
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I had to surrender. I did calculate until the fifth iteration but the numbers were getting out of control very quickly (many figures each) and I couldn't find any way of having 175 in the denominator.
Table [ 4 1 ( 4 3 ) p ∑ i = 0 ∞ ( 4 3 ) 4 i , { p , 0 , 3 } ] ⟹ { 1 7 5 6 4 , 1 7 5 4 8 , 1 7 5 3 6 , 1 7 5 2 7 }
The probability a person will be able to draw in this round of four draws: Table [ ( 4 3 ) p , { p , 0 , 3 } ] ⟹ { 1 , 4 3 , 1 6 9 , 6 4 2 7 } .
The probability of winning if you get to draw in this round of draws: 4 1 .
The probability of winning in this round of draws: 4 1 { 1 , 4 3 , 1 6 9 , 6 4 2 7 } ⟹ { 4 1 , 1 6 3 , 6 4 9 , 2 5 6 2 7 } .
Lastly, we need the infinite sum of the factors of surviving an infinite series of rounds: ∑ i = 0 ∞ ( 4 3 ) 4 i = ∑ i = 0 ∞ ( 2 5 6 8 1 ) i ⟹ 1 7 5 2 5 6 .
Finally, 1 7 5 2 5 6 { 4 1 , 1 6 3 , 6 4 9 , 2 5 6 2 7 } ⟹ { 1 7 5 6 4 , 1 7 5 4 8 , 1 7 5 3 6 , 1 7 5 2 7 }
The key observation is that p B = 4 3 p A , p C = 4 3 p B and p D = 4 3 p C .
Using this and the fact that p A + p B + p C + p D = 1 , we have
p A ( 1 + 4 3 + ( 4 3 ) 2 + ( 4 3 ) 3 ) = 1
Solving gives p A = 1 7 5 6 4 ; we then get p B = 1 7 5 4 8 , p C = 1 7 5 3 6 and p D = 1 7 5 2 7 . The only odd numerator is 2 7 .
Nice solution!
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The probability of drawing o r o s is 4 1 , and not drawing o r o s is of course 4 3 .
Antonio goes first. He may win in the 1st turn, or in the 5th provided the rest of the players lose in their respective turns, or in the 9th... p A = 4 1 + ( 4 3 ) 4 × 4 1 + ( 4 3 ) 8 × 4 1 + … = 4 1 × 1 − ( 4 3 ) 4 1 = 1 7 5 6 4
For Benito to win, Antonio must lose his respective turns. Benito's turns are the 2nd, the 6th, the 10th... : p B = 4 3 × 4 1 + ( 4 3 ) 5 × 4 1 + ( 4 3 ) 9 × 4 1 + … = 4 3 × 4 1 × 1 − ( 4 3 ) 4 1 = 1 7 5 4 8 Note that p B = 4 3 p A
The pattern repeats for Carlos, p C = ( 4 3 ) 2 p A = 1 7 5 3 6 and Diego, p D = ( 4 3 ) 3 p A = 1 7 5 27 .
Therefore a = 6 4 , b = 4 8 , c = 3 6 and d = 2 7 .