Though shalt not commit fallacies
Christopher likes Red and dislikes Yellow.
Each day, on his way to school, he counts the number of red and yellow cars and makes the following conclusions
- 3 red cars in a row make it a Quite Good Day , 4 red cars make it a Good Day , and 5 red cars in a row make it a Super Good Day
- 4 yellow cars in a row make it a Black Day
When Mr. Jeavons, the psychologist at school asks him why, he says
I like red cars. When I see a row of red cars, they are a streak of good things. Hence, I am lucky on this day and more good things will happen to me.
What fallacy is Christopher committing?
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1 solution
The Gambler's Fallacy is where if something happens more frequently than normal in a given period then it will happen less often in a future period, or visa versa. Here Christopher sees the multiple sightings of cars painted a color he likes as a predictor that his good luck will continue, which appears to be more a "reverse" Gambler's Fallacy.