There are three balls in a bag, two blue and one red.
You pick one out at random.
Then your friend picks one out and reveals that he picked a blue ball.
What is the probability that you picked a blue ball?
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Call the two blue balls, B 1 and B 2 .
There are six possible scenarios for picking three balls:
We can eliminate the second and fourth possibilities since we know your friend picked a blue ball. Of the remaining possibilities, in two of them you picked a red ball and in two of them you picked a blue ball.
So, the probability you picked a blue ball is 2 1