Three light bulbs

You are given three light bulbs, whose lifespans follow the exponential distribution: the first one is expected to last one year, the second one 6 months, and the third 4 months.

The expected number of years till they all burn out can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are coprime positive integers. Enter a + b a + b as the answer.


The answer is 133.

This section requires Javascript.
You are seeing this because something didn't load right. We suggest you, (a) try refreshing the page, (b) enabling javascript if it is disabled on your browser and, finally, (c) loading the non-javascript version of this page . We're sorry about the hassle.

1 solution

Dmitry Nikolaev
Jul 1, 2017

Three light bulbs with rates λ 1 = 1 \lambda_1 = 1 , λ 2 = 2 \lambda_2 = 2 , and λ 3 = 3 \lambda_3 = 3 serving simultaneously form a union of three Poisson processes (the death of a light bulb can be thought of as a first event in the possibly infinite process where you replace light bulbs with new ones with the same characteristics, and we know that inter-arrival times in a Poisson process follow the exponential distribution). The probability of occurrence of any of the three independent events is the sum of their probabilities so we have a Poisson process with the rate λ P = 1 + 2 + 3 \lambda_P = 1 + 2 + 3 . The first light bulb is expected to go out at time 1 λ P \frac{1}{\lambda_P} . Then there are three possibilities: any of the i i light bulbs could die first with the probabilities λ i λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 \frac{\lambda_i}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2+\lambda_3} . When this happens we are left with a new merged Poisson process with a rate equal to λ 1 + λ 2 , λ 1 + λ 3 \lambda_1+\lambda_2, \lambda_1+\lambda_3 , or λ 2 + λ 3 \lambda_2+\lambda_3 , and the reasoning can be repeated. The resulting formula is

1 λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 + λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 ( 1 λ 2 + λ 3 + λ 2 λ 2 + λ 3 1 λ 3 + λ 3 λ 2 + λ 3 1 λ 2 ) + λ 2 λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 ( 1 λ 1 + λ 3 + λ 1 λ 1 + λ 3 1 λ 3 + λ 3 λ 1 + λ 3 1 λ 1 ) + λ 3 λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 ( 1 λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 1 λ 2 + λ 2 λ 1 + λ 2 1 λ 1 ) \displaystyle \frac{1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2+\lambda_3} + \frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2+\lambda_3} \Big( \frac{1}{\lambda_2+\lambda_3} + \frac{\lambda_2}{\lambda_2+\lambda_3}\frac{1}{\lambda_3} + \frac{\lambda_3}{\lambda_2+\lambda_3}\frac{1}{\lambda_2} \Big) + \\ \displaystyle \frac{\lambda_2}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2+\lambda_3} \Big( \frac{1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_3} + \frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_3}\frac{1}{\lambda_3} + \frac{\lambda_3}{\lambda_1+\lambda_3}\frac{1}{\lambda_1}\Big) + \frac{\lambda_3}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2+\lambda_3}\Big( \frac{1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2} + \frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2}\frac{1}{\lambda_2} + \frac{\lambda_2}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2}\frac{1}{\lambda_1} \Big)

When the rates 1, 2, and 3 are plugged in it gives 73 60 \frac{73}{60} , and the answer is 133 \fbox{133} .

0 pending reports

×

Problem Loading...

Note Loading...

Set Loading...